2025 has been defined by a low-quality market regime.

Market leadership has come from companies characterized by negative free cash flow, high short interest, and elevated bankruptcy risk.

Unprofitable companies outperformed profitable ones in 3 of 4 quarters. Since the April 8th “Liberation Day” rally began, unprofitable companies surged more than 80%.

From April through October, the trends were clear with low-quality outperforming high-quality and the most expensive stocks outperforming the cheapest.

For historical perspective, the payoff to quality and value during this 7-month “Liberation Day” rally ranks as the second worst period in the last 30 years.

Periods like this test discipline. Market regimes can persist longer than expected, but history suggests they don’t last forever.

Low Quality Factors Led in 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2025. Returns are relative to Russell 2000 Total Return.

Profitable vs. Unprofitable Companies

Source: FactSet 12/31/2024 to 12/31/2025.

Russell 2000 Non-Earner Performance by Sector

Source: FactSet; performance is through 12/31/2025.

2025: The Year of Low Quality and Expensive Stocks

Russell 2000

Source: Aristotle Capital Boston analysis using Bloomberg data in the Russell 2000 universe.  Quality consists of Margin, Low Accruals, and Capital Usage. 

April – October Among the Worst Periods for Quality and Value

Russell 2000

Source: Aristotle Capital Boston analysis using Bloomberg data in the Russell 2000 universe.  Quality consists of Margin, Low Accruals, and Capital Usage.  Payoffs are rolling seven-month Q1 – Q5 payoffs over the 1996 to 2025 period.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2603-7

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Low-quality and non-earning stocks have outperformed in three of the past four quarters. However, over time, these same companies tend to lag the broader index — a reminder that short-term market leadership often diverges from long-term value creation, and that fundamentals ultimately prevail.

Low Quality Factors Led in 3 out of 4 Quarters

As of September 30, 2025

Low quality factors led in 3Q25

Low quality factors led in 2Q25

Quality factors led in 1Q25

Low quality factors led in 4Q24

Source: Furey Research Partners Q1, Q2, Q3 2025; Q4 2024. Returns are relative to Russell 2000 Total Return.

Profitable vs. Unprofitable Companies

As of September 30, 2025

Source: FactSet 9/30/2024 to 9/30/2025.​

Historical Factor and Non-Earner Returns

As of September 30, 2025

Long-term relative path of unprofitable companies

Long-term returns of unprofitable companies

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. [Left chart] Displays aggregated returns for unprofitable companies and unprofitable companies ex/technology and health care in the Russell 2000 index, 1985-2025. HC is an abbreviation for the Health Care GICS sector

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-18

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Active small-cap managers’ quality focus can be a headwind in low-quality bull market rallies but a source of strength when markets correct — delivering resilience and alpha across the full market cycle.

Better Times Tend to Follow Small Active Underperformance

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Jefferies Research Services; FTSE Russell; Lipper Analytical Services; FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Worst 6 month average is the average of the worst 6 month relative return periods for each group of small cap managers: core, growth, and value.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-17

 

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Market concentration surged in Q3: just two industries—Metals & Mining and Semiconductors—drove over 20% of the Russell 2000’s total return. Metals & Mining climbed 56%, Semiconductors 39%.

Of the index’s 50 best performers, 37 came from just four high-growth areas: biopharma, metals, crypto, and quantum computing. Such concentrated performance has emerged as a post-COVID phenomenon, potentially tied to the intensified growth momentum and narrow market leadership that has characterized recent years.

Two Industries Have Posted Outsized Gains Since the Bottom

As of September 30, 2025

Metals & Mining and Semis dominated 3Q25 returns

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Returns are for the Russell 2000 Index.

Two of 29 Industries Contributed 21% of the 3Q25 Return

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Returns are for the Russell 2000 Index.

Top 50 stocks were nearly 50% of the 3Q25 Return

As of September 30, 2025

Of the 50 best Russell 2000 stocks, 37 were biopharma, metals, crypto or quantum computing

Source: FactSet 9/30/2024 to 9/30/2025.

Return Concentration Levels are a Post-Covid Phenomenon

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. R2 is an abbreviation of the Russell 2000 Index.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-13

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

The current large cap cycle is the second longest since 1935, with small caps underperforming large caps by 5% on an annualized basis. Has the pendulum swung too far?

Markets tend to be mean-reverting. History shows that when the cycles turn, the catch-up trade in small caps can be powerful. Yet, timing the exact inflection point is nearly impossible, and missing just a handful of the best days can significantly erode long-term returns.

This is why maintaining a dedicated allocation to small caps remains critical for investors seeking to capture the full cycle.

The Last Time Large Caps Outperformed Small Caps by this Margin was in 1999

As of June 30, 2025

Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to June 2025.


Small Caps Have Lagged By 5% in the Current Large Cap Cycle

As of June 30, 2025

Sources: Furey Research Partners, FactSet. Based on annualized returns for the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to June 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices.

Trailing Performance History Suggests We May Be at an Inflection Point

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Based on the annualized returns of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to December 2024.

The Key is to Stay Invested

As of June 30, 2025

Russell 2000 Forward 2-Year Annualized Return

Source: Furey Research Partners. Rolling forward two-year returns calculated daily, as of 6/30/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2509-6

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

After nearly 15 years of large cap dominance, investors are asking: what could drive the next market cycle?

Several potential catalysts are coming into focus:

  • Earnings troughing and reaccelerating
  • Slower growth rates by the “AI 5”
  • Rising M&A activity
  • Increased capex spending


These shifts suggest that small caps may be well-positioned to benefit from a broadening of market leadership, creating potential entry points for long-term investors.

Small Cap Earnings and Sales Growth Expectations

As of June 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet as of 6/30/2025.

Large-Cap Cycles Typically Peak at Market Tops Crowded with Mega Caps

As of June 30, 2025

Sources: eVestment; FactSet; Furey Research Partners. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to June 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices.

Solid M&A Activity Down Cap Helps Small Cap’s Performance

As of June 30, 2025

Source: Jefferies; FTSE Russell; FactSet; Bloomberg as of 6/30/2025.

US Capex Growth is More Correlated with SC Sales Growth

Small cap stocks have a relatively higher historical correlation with capex than large cap stocks

Correlation of US capex growth with small cap (Russell 2000) and large cap (S&P 500) sales growth, 1985-3Q24.

Source: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy, FactSet, Haver Analytics, 9/30/2024.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2509-5

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Over the past six months, equity markets have experienced a broad rally. As Q3 comes to a close, we believe it is critical to reassess the valuation landscape.

Despite their recent outperformance since Liberation Day, small cap equities continue to trade at attractive relative valuations versus large caps. Within the segment, we believe small value remains particularly compelling, with discounts widening further compared to small growth. Over the long term, valuation remains one of the main determinants of alpha generation. 

Small-Cap Value and Mid-Cap Value Remain Cheap Relative to History and Style Peers

As of June 30, 2025

Small vs. large: cheap vs. history across metrics

Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 relative valuation vs. historical avg. (January 31, 1985 – June 30, 2025)

Source: BofA US Small/Mid-Cap Valuations; FactSet. P/E (price-to-earnings) measures exclude negative earnings. Forward P/E is based on consensus next 12 month forecast earnings. EV/FCF excludes negative FCF.

Small Caps and Value are Historically Cheap Relative to Large Caps and Growth

As of June 30, 2025

Small cap Growth is historically expensive vs. Value on five out of six metrics

Relative premium to the historical average multiple for Russell 2000 Growth vs. Russell 2000 Value

Source: BofA Global Research; FactSet. Based on historical multiples, 1985-6/30/2025.

Valuation Impact over Short and Long Time Periods

As of May 31, 2025

Valuations have the highest explanatory power over long-term (ten-year) returns

R2 of relative forward P/E vs subsequent return spread over various time horizons (since 1985): Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000,
as of 5/31/2025

Note: Represents the relationship between the relative forward PE for the Russell 2000 vs the Russell 1000 (since 1985) and subsequent rolling returns differential.

Source: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy; FactSet as of 5/31/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000® Index The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 93% of the Russell 3000® Index, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 2000 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small cap growth segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with relatively higher price-to-book ratios, higher I/B/E/S forecast medium term (2 year) growth and higher sales per share historical growth (5 years). The Russell 2000 Value® Index measures the performance of the small cap value segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with relatively lower price-to-book ratios, lower I/B/E/S forecast medium term (2 year) growth and lower sales per share historical growth (5 years). The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2509-4

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Small cap stocks perform well in a variety of inflationary regimes relative to large and mid-cap stocks including the current environment where inflation is below 3% and rising. Discover the historical performance of small-cap stocks in various inflationary environments.

View our full small caps observations for deeper insight.

Historical Analysis of Small Caps in Differing Inflationary Environments

High and falling inflation has historically been a sweet spot for small cap investors.

If inflation continues to drift below 3% in 2025, that should be good for small caps.

Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Jefferies. CRSP US Small Cap Index, CRSP US Mid Cap Index, CRSP US Large Cap Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures
u003cpu003eThe opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003eAll investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003ePast performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003eThe CRSP U.S. Large Cap Index measures the performance of U.S. companies that comprise the top 85% of investable market capitalization and are traded on NYSE, NYSE Market, NASDAQ or ARCA. The CRSP U.S. Mid Cap Index measures the performance of U.S. companies that fall in the top 70-85% of investable market capitalization. It includes securities traded on NYSE, NYSE Market, NASDAQ, or ARCA. The CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index measures the performance of U.S. companies that fall in the bottom 2-15% of investable market capitalization. It includes securities traded on NYSE, NYSE Market, NASDAQ, or ARCA. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003eAristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-30u003c/pu003e

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

The quality of the Russell 2000 has meaningfully deteriorated with nearly 40% of the index constituents being non-earners and close to 25% are at risk of bankruptcy. With $65 billion in zero interest rate era debt maturing in the coming years, refinancing risk is elevated. History suggests investing in companies that generate positive net income not only supports long-term outperformance but may also help mitigate the refinancing risk embedded in the index.

View our full small caps observations for deeper insight.

Quality of the Index Has Eroded

As of March 31, 2025

Source: Aristotle Boston analysis with data from Bloomberg and Russell Investments. Data from 7/1994 to 3/2025. Annualized Excess Returns above are average annualized excess returns.

Quality of the Index Has Eroded

Small cap stocks have a relatively larger share of debt coming due in the next 5 years.

As interest rates have increased since much of this debt was issued, refinancing will be more expensive and difficult for non- or low-earning stocks.

Source: Bloomberg, 5/11/2024.

For more small caps observations click here.

For more information on the index and refinancing risk click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index. It includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

The Altman Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within two years. It uses a combination of five key financial ratios to calculate a single score. The formula takes into account profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency, and activity ratios. An Altman Z-score close to 0 suggests a company might be headed for bankruptcy, while a score closer to 3 suggests a company is in solid financial positioning.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-29

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Over the past 15 years we have observed a prolonged large cap cycle, resulting in small caps as a percentage of the Russell 3000 index hitting 20 year lows. The last time large caps outperformed small caps by this wide of a margin was during the dot-com bubble in 1999. If history is any indication and markets are mean reverting, forward returns for small caps should be strong as the asset classes normalize. Explore the potential reversion of small cap stocks to historical norms and the distinctive opportunities this presents.

Small vs. Large Potential Reversion to Historical Norms

As of March 31, 2025

We believe the latest large-cap cycle is growing old, as large caps have outperformed small caps for the better half of the last decade plus. A reversion to the mean positions small caps well relative to large caps moving forward.

Rolling 10-Year Excess Return U.S. Small Cap vs. U.S. Large Cap Stocks (1935 – 3/31/2025)


Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the Russell 1000 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to March 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices. Cycles are defined by peak to trough inflection points in 10-year rolling excess returns. Length in years are rounded to nearest whole number. Past performance is not indicative of future results..



Small Cap’s Total Market Cap as a Percentage of the Russell 3000 sits at a 20-Year Low

As of March 31, 2025

Russell 2000 Total Market Cap / Russell 3000 Total Market Cap (%)

9/30/2004 – 3/31/2025

Source: Bloomberg. The ratio represents the total market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index as a percentage of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

Trailing Performance History Suggests We May Be at an Inflection Point

Source: [Left chart]: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Based on the annualized returns of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to December 2024. [Right chart]: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices. Past performance is not indicative of future results..

The Last Time Large Caps Outperformed Small Caps by this Margin was in 1999

As of March 31, 2025

Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to March 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 93% of the Russell 3000® Index, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 3000® Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 US companies representing approximately 96% of the investable US equity market, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 3000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive, unbiased and stable barometer of the broad market and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-26

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.