Host: Alex Warren, CFA, CAIA

Guest: Dominic Nolan, CFA, CEO of Aristotle Pacific Capital

May 11, 2023

Episode Length: 17:55

In this episode, we speak with Dominic Nolan, CFA, CEO of Aristotle Pacific. Dominic discusses the recent addition of the liquid credit specialist to the Aristotle family and what he believes makes Aristotle Pacific unique. He also discusses the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation, the current state of fixed income markets in 2023 and where he sees potential opportunities for patient investors.

SHOW NOTES
  • Disclosures (00:00 to 00:34)
  • Episode introduction (00:35 to 01:16)
  • Introduction to the episode’s guest: Aristotle Pacific’s Dominic Nolan (01:17 to 01:50)
  • History of Aristotle Pacific (01:51 to 02:41)
  • Genesis of the acquisition of Aristotle Pacific (02:42 to 03:53)
  • Cultural and organizational fit with the Aristotle Family (03:54 to 05:35)
  • Background of Aristotle Pacific’s investment team (05:36 to 07:47)
  • What makes Aristotle Pacific unique (07:48 to 10:21)
  • The battle against inflation: discussion on inflation and Federal Reserve Policy (10:22 to 13:23)
  • Discounting the headlines: discussion on fixed income markets in 2023 (13:24 to 14:14)
  • Areas of the market that may warrant caution (14:15 to 15:37)
  • Outlook and opportunities for credit in the next few years (15:38 to 17:17)
  • Conclusion (17:18 to 17:55)
TRANSCRIPT

Alex Warren: The term Aristotle is used to represent a family of affiliates, which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, Aristotle Atlantic Partners, and Aristotle Pacific Capital, which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment advisor registered under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, as amended. Welcome to the Power of Patience, Aristotle’s podcast, where we share our views on topics actively explored by our investment teams and across the organization. I’m Alex Warren, product specialist at Aristotle, and I’ll be your host today. Coming up on today’s episode, we’ll be speaking with Dominic Nolan, CEO of Aristotle, Pacific Capital. If you enjoy this podcast, please like and share it on LinkedIn to help us spread the word. Today on the show we’ll discuss the introduction of Aristotle Pacific Capital to the Aristotle family, what makes Aristotle Pacific Capital unique, inflation and Federal Reserve policy, and opportunities today for fixed income investors. Without further ado, let’s get started. Dominic, thank you so much for speaking with me today. To lead off the discussion, can you introduce yourself and provide a brief overview of Aristotle Pacific Capital?

Dominic Nolan: Happy to; Dominic Nolan, CEO of Aristotle Pacific Capital, formerly Pacific Asset Management. Joined the firm in 2008, about a month before Lehman Brothers, so it was a bit of dubious timing on our side, and been with the firm since. We started with about a billion in traditional credit, and at the time of acquisition, a little over $20 billion. As it relates to the origin of Aristotle Pacific Capital, it really starts with Pacific Asset Management. I would say even before that with Pacific Life and their relationship with PIMCO, Pacific Life was the parent company of that very large firm for a number of years. In the late 90s, it was sold to Allianz, and there was ownership still retained by Pacific Life, and essentially that was called away. Knowing that was taking place, there was a group from the general account of Pacific Life that approached the parent company, and said we’d like to start an asset manager with a focus on corporate credit, bottom-up corporate credit. Understanding that there was no longer an active ownership stake in PIMCO anymore, granted that, and Pacific Asset Management was born in January of 2007.

So as they built out the team, I believe I was number 10 or so, there was half a dozen from the general account, and then the rest external hires and again, joined in mid-2008.

Alex Warren: Absolutely. You touched on the recent acquisition from Pacific Asset Management. What was the genesis of the acquisition?

Dominic Nolan: We had been in existence now for a good 14, 15 years, and grown from a billion to over $20 billion. One of the catalysts for the sale was an operating agreement between Pacific Asset Management and Pacific Life coming to an end. The timing of that was that we needed to reevaluate that operating agreement, so that’s one. Two, at a high level, the firm had reached scale, I think within asset management, and that’s a very difficult thing to do, but with $20 billion, the momentum of the business was quite strong. We had hit $10 billion in 2018 and had doubled within two to three years. So again, the high growth rate there. Three, Pacific Life was evaluating their businesses and determined they wanted to remain focused on balance sheet centric businesses. And then when you incorporate that, our business model, even though we’re financial services, is really slightly different than the insurance business model. I think you add all that together. Again, timing of the agreement, wanting to focus on balance sheet centric businesses, us reaching scale, it just led to a decision that they wanted to find us a new partner.

Alex Warren: That makes sense. Now, in your opinion, how is the cultural fit, and what did the two organizations bring to the table?

Dominic Nolan: We went through this process really for most of 2022, and as it relates to things that our team and I wanted was first and foremost, we wanted to keep the team together, so finding a partner that was willing to do that was paramount. Number two, we wanted to find a partner that could help us grow. It’s easy to say, doesn’t everyone want to help you grow? There were entities we were speaking with where we were the second or third fixed income team, and I think they just wanted to increase assets, but not really help us grow.

Alex Warren: Got you.

Dominic Nolan: And then the third element is we wanted to maintain our owner operator mentality. Having the proverbial skin in the game was important to us when we struck our deal in the mid-2010s with Pacific Life. We wanted to maintain that, and it was pretty evident, I would say early in the process, that was Aristotle’s operating model. Certainly, welcoming the team, the ability to help us grow, and that owner operator construct was exactly what we were looking for.

And to add to that, then you start to dig into the values of the organization, and how they operated. And I felt Aristotle was very like-minded. They understood it is a people business, not a balance sheet business. And the track record of success with senior management stood out to us, on top of being like-minded. The investment disciplines were very complementary, and distribution had little to no overlap in my opinion. And then all of that wrapped in an experience of eight years of knowing senior management of Aristotle. It worked well, and again, it got to be where there was really only one clear choice in my opinion.

Alex Warren: Those are important considerations, and it makes sense. For the benefit of the listeners, we’re actually in the same building, so it’s a bit of a hand in glove relationship right there.

Dominic Nolan: Yes.

Alex Warren: Now I understand Aristotle Pacific Capital has a deep bench of credit investors. Can you provide some background on your investment team?

Dominic Nolan: As alluded earlier in our discussion, we were founded in 2007. The focus there was corporate credit, and the investment disciplines were around investment grade credit, high yield bonds, floating rate loans. Those disciplines anchor our business today. So back in ’07 when we had about a billion, that’s what we invested in. Fast-forward 15 years, those are the areas we invest in today. Now, we have added structured credit, or CLOs, on top of those disciplines, but the underlying collateral of that business line are floating rate loans. So I’d say 99 plus percent of our business is focused on corporate credit. Now that element as far as how we invest, first and foremost, the portfolio managers make the decisions on their respective strategies. In other words, there is not a firm-wide view on macroeconomics, risk tolerance, sector preferences. That is done at a portfolio management level.

At the same time, our portfolio managers for each strategy, we have more than one portfolio manager, and in our view, a well-executed team can outrun any individual, that’s our view. And that has been in place since the beginning. Another element is from an analyst standpoint, a research standpoint, they really cover an industry. And I’d say many firms in our industry will separate the investment grade team and the leverage finance team, leverage finance is high yield and floating rate loans. Our structure is that our retail analyst is looking at the investment grade companies all the way through, and the thesis there is if you’re going to research retail, you’re best to know what Walmart’s doing in retail as you dig deeper and get to understand that marketplace.

Alex Warren: Yeah.

Dominic Nolan: So we’ve incorporated that since our beginning. So when you look through, it’s a focus on liquid credit. The portfolio managers really are responsible for their strategy. There isn’t a firm-wide macro view or preference of sectors, and our research structure is done on an industry level, and that’s how we’ve approached investing in credit since the beginning.

Alex Warren: That’s fascinating. I know a top-down view is something that you see in many fixed income shops, so that leads well into my next question. What do you believe makes the firm unique?

Dominic Nolan: We have been focused on an area of the market that I think a lot of other firms don’t focus on. That was something that we discovered over the past year or two, and just to give you a sense of that. When you’re a really large fixed income manager, your predominant benchmark is the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, and that’s the bellwether index for most investors. The breakdown of that index in high level, it’s about a third U.S. treasuries. It’s about a third mortgage-backed securities, about 25% corporate credit, and the rest is asset-backed securities, and maybe some sovereign debt. When Fannie and Freddie were taken into conservatorship post-crisis, that meant the benchmark was going to be 60% to 70% quasi-government or government, U.S. government backed securities, and as a large fixed income shop, if that’s your benchmark, that means getting that call right on top-down macro duration, etc. It’s going to drive performance.

Our focus has been on the 25% of the benchmark, that investment grade corporate, and then with that, you also have high yield and leveraged loans. Now, when you go below investment grade, that’s a marketplace that has developed uniquely since the crisis, and that the bank constraints post-crisis and the regulations, Dodd-Frank, etc. a lot of lending had changed or the face of lending had changed, and then private markets have become quite prevalent for small and mid-size corporations. Meanwhile, we stuck to the liquid part of the leverage finance market. So as it relates to the firm, we’re actually focused on the third-largest sector in the investment grade world, and we’re focused on the most liquid sector in the below investment rate world. That’s the space we’ve played in, the area we’ve been in for 15 years. As a large firm, we are going to be different, because of our focus on liquid credit relative to a small firm.

A lot of small firms have come about with their focus on private credit. The economics tend to be a little heavier for them, the spreads are higher. Meanwhile, we were plugging away in liquid markets, so fast-forward $20 billion in assets. What we found is very few firms have maintained that focus. I think there have been pressures, whether it be business or on the investment side to deviate, and that’s something that we have remained, I think, well positioned for, because now, again, we have some scale, so we’re not too small, but we’re not a battleship. We’re still able to move pretty quick.

Alex Warren: I think your comment about the Bloomberg Aggregate is fascinating. I didn’t appreciate how little credit was actually in the index itself, so that’s a fascinating point to take away. I’d love to shift gears and get your thoughts about markets. Inflation and Federal Reserve policy have recently presented challenges for fixed income investors. What are your thoughts on the battle against inflation?

Dominic Nolan: Well, it’s been a brutal journey getting here. And just some perspective, last year, the index was down 12%, 13%, around there. Up until last year. The worst year ever was 1994 when it was down about 3%.

Alex Warren: Oh, wow.

Dominic Nolan: So down last year four times.

Alex Warren: Yeah.

Dominic Nolan: The worst year ever. However, there’s a much different rate environment now, so people do get paid to be in investment grade assets, or even paid to be in short-term assets or cash. As it relates to the battle against inflation, obviously, the core of this was one, the Federal Reserve being very aggressive in raising rates, but two, the money that was printed during COVID. So from the standpoint of where it sits right now as we record, the Fed futures are anticipating one more rate hike in May, and actually forecasting a cut in December. So the expectation is the Fed will be cutting before the end of the year. Now that is different than what you’re hearing out of the Fed. Most of the rhetoric coming through is that the Fed intends to leave rates where they are, and the market has been in and out of belief as it relates to what the Fed will do, and there are many market participants that believe inflation’s going to decelerate at a greater pace than what the Fed’s anticipating.

The economy’s going to slow down at a greater rate than the Fed’s anticipating, so thus the Fed will be quasi forced to cut by the end of the year. There’s certainly a camp of investors that believe that, and then there’s a camp of investors that believe inflation’s going to be sticky. The Fed is uber determined to stick to their guns, and they’re going to leave rates where they are. We’ll see. That’s a bit dynamic. Personally, I think the economy is going to slow down more than what the Fed believes. However, where I have pause on the cut is the Fed continues to anchor to a 2% long-term inflation mark. That’s the same level they anchored to prior to COVID. To me, there should be, I think, an adjustment to reflect all the M2, all the money supply that went into the system.

Maybe the long-term rate should go from two to two and a half or three, I don’t know. It’ll take a few years to really get a sense of what should a long-term rate be. However, the Fed has not made that adjustment, so thus it leads me to believe that they’re going to stick to their guns, right or wrong, and leave rates where they are and not cut. However, the new information, and by new, I mean in the past 60 days are the banking issues. We have the second and third-largest failure in our banking history, and as a result, most banks up and down the size, so from money center banks to super-regionals, regionals, community banks, credit unions, etc. I would expect those banks to begin tightening their lending standards, which that tightens monetary policy as well. So if you incorporate that, and fast-forward six to nine months, I believe the economy will slow down. I believe the job market will get worse. Is that enough for the Fed to cut? Right now, it doesn’t seem like it, but it sure would surprise me if it got to that point.

Alex Warren: Broadly speaking, fear and volatility were hallmarks of 2022. Do you think fixed income investors have done a good job in 2023 with discounting the headlines?

Dominic Nolan: In general, I do. And the reason I say that is spreads have held in and rates are moving because the economy’s very difficult to underwrite right now. The recession element has been debated for the past year, and we have not gone into recession. First quarter print on GDP was around 1%, so technically the economy’s holding in, and the job market has been very resilient. So you’ve seen positive returns from a fixed income standpoint. So in general, I’d say they have. Fear and volatility to me from 2022, which is certainly the case, I think has been replaced with just a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the banking situation, and the economic situation.

Alex Warren: Given those uncertainties, are there any areas of the market that give you pause right now?

Dominic Nolan: For me, it’s really the private markets, and when you think about the repricing of assets. So the thing about liquid assets is they’re reflected in their risk premium daily. And when you had a tightening cycle last year, the first thing to reprice were liquid assets. The equity markets repriced, the fixed income markets repriced, those are liquid. Then you start to get into semi-liquid assets, things like office, retail, single family. There’s a lot of uncertainty in single family. I think there’s a lot of certainty that there are struggles happening in the office, commercial property, in particular with office and retail. Certainly, uncertainty on single family and multifamily, but that’s also going through the repricing element. We haven’t quite seen the full repricing in private markets. Private markets are not transparent, and a lot of times they’ll mark the same value, because no one has traded out of it.

And essentially, if you think about what’s the value of your house, well, you arbitrarily assign a number, but you really don’t know unless you sell. In liquid markets, things are selling every day. So you have that transparency. In private markets, I think there’s a lot of price discovery going on, and I don’t believe that’s been, certainly, not fully reflected. I think there’s more to go on the private side, so that gives me pause.

Alex Warren: That’s fascinating, and that’s certainly food for thought. It has been a great conversation and we have time for one final question. What is your outlook for corporate credit over the next few years, and where do you see opportunities?

Dominic Nolan: I’m very much constructive on corporate credit. A few reasons: one, there was a repricing. In investment grade bonds, a year, year and a half ago we were yielding 2%, now they’re yielding 5 plus percent. High yield was yielding sub 5%. Now it’s yielding 8 to 9%. Floating rate loans, with the Fed being aggressive, has discount margins or rate yields of around 9 to 10%. So from an investor’s standpoint, I feel the compensation you’re getting for that risk is substantially higher today. So that’s one. Two, when you look through to implied default rates versus forecasted rates, the markets are already pricing in defaults that are really higher than what Moody’s and S&P are forecasting. Now, that doesn’t mean we won’t get there, but it’s already discounting that in.

So you have that element and then, just when you look through the coupons, those coupons offer significant protection against capital loss, as it relates to credit relative to other asset class, private assets to me haven’t been repriced fully. Meanwhile, you have tightening conditions in an economy that’s slowing down, from an equity standpoint. I think that’s a lot of pressure on the economy and thus equities, whereas at least now in corporate credit, you have coupons to help offset that volatility. So I’m very much in the camp that, structurally, corporate credit, I think, feels pretty good after a decade plus of kind of being secondary to equity returns and private market returns. So I feel the time is quite nice right now for corporate credit.

Alex Warren: A good setup and a challenging environment. Well, that brings us to the end of this episode. Thank you so much, Dominic, for joining us today. We hope you’ve enjoyed it and learned more about Aristotle. Thank you for listening to the Power of Patience. To learn more about Aristotle, please visit www.aristotlecap.com or follow the link in the show notes. If you enjoyed the show, please rate and review us on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Be sure to come back next time for discussion on bio-agriculture with Aristotle Capital Portfolio Manager and Senior Global Research Analyst, Geoffrey Stewart. Until then, this is Alex Warren, and thank you for listening.

DISCLOSURE
The term “Aristotle” is used to represent the family of affiliates which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, and Aristotle Atlantic Partners; which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
The term “Aristotle” is used to represent the family of affiliates which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, and Aristotle Atlantic Partners; which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
The term “Aristotle” is used to represent the family of affiliates which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, and Aristotle Atlantic Partners; which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

At Aristotle Capital Management (Aristotle), we have three core tenets to our investment process: we seek to invest in high-quality businesses, trading at attractive valuations, where there are company-specific catalysts underway to unlock this often-hidden value. While the concept of an investment “catalyst” is, generally, well understood by the marketplace, Aristotle’s specific definition of investment catalysts is often misunderstood.

When applied to the Aristotle investment process, a catalyst is an action or event both currently underway and within management’s control that, we believe, will fundamentally improve the business and propel a company closer to meeting its potential. The Aristotle investment process is to identify good or great companies in good or great businesses that, for some reason, are not yet meeting their full potential.

To read the full thought piece, please use the link below. 

Host: Alex Warren, CFA, CAIA

Guest: Nicholas Daft

April 27, 2023

Episode Length: 24:40

In this episode, we speak with Nicholas Daft, Director and Senior Research Analyst at Aristotle Atlantic. He shares his insights on why he believes cybersecurity is an important secular theme, shedding light on its evolution as businesses embrace digital transformation.

Nicholas highlights the growing frequency, complexity, and cost of cyberattacks, emphasizing why he believes it will necessitate investment in next-generation cybersecurity technology. Lastly, he explains why he believes certain market segments stand to gain from the continued investment in next-generation security software to combat cyber threats.

SHOW NOTES
  • Disclosures (00:00 to 00:34)
  • Episode introduction (00:35 to 01:22)
  • Introduction to the episode’s guest: Aristotle Atlantic’s Nicholas Daft (01:23 to 02:35)
  • Aristotle Atlantic’s unique investment approach (02:36 to 04:11)
  • Why Cybersecurity represents an investible secular theme (04:12 to 06:30)
  • Changes in the digital landscape and the evolution of cybersecurity (06:31 to 09:39)
  • The Internet of Things (IoT) explained (09:40 to 11:55)
  • Common cyberattack techniques and their consequences (11:56 to 14:20)
  • Why cybercrime is a national security concern (14:21 to 17:32)
  • The costs of cyberattacks (17:33 to 20:13)
  • Opportunities for growth in the cybersecurity industry (20:14 to 22:14)
  • Areas of the market that may benefit from the growth of cybersecurity (22:15 to 24:08)
  • Conclusion (24:09 to 24:40)
TRANSCRIPT

Alex Warren: The term Aristotle is used to represent a family of affiliates, which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, Aristotle Atlantic Partners, and Aristotle Pacific Capital, which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment advisor registered under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, as amended.

Welcome to the Power of Patience, Aristotle’s podcast, where we share our views on topics actively explored by our investment teams and across our organization. I’m Alex Warren, Product Specialist at Aristotle, and I’ll be your host today.

Coming up on today’s episode, we’ll be speaking with Nick Daft, Director and Senior Research Analyst at Aristotle Atlantic Partners. Nick’s coverage includes the information technology, energy, and material sectors.

If you enjoy this podcast, please like and share it on LinkedIn to help spread the word.

Today on the show we’ll discuss how the digital transformation of the past decade has led to network vulnerabilities, the growth of cyberattacks and techniques used, the impact of cybercrime and national security and cybersecurity market growth and investment opportunities. Without further ado, let’s get started.

Nick, thank you so much for joining me today. To lead off the discussion, can you introduce yourself and provide a brief history of your role at Aristotle Atlantic?

Nicholas Daft: Absolutely. Thank you, Alex. And hello to everyone listening to the Power of Patience podcast. Let me go ahead and introduce myself.

My name is Nick Daft and I’m a member of the five-person investment team here at Aristotle Atlantic Partners. I have worked in financial services for almost two decades in various roles over the years, but for the past 16 years, I have worked as an investment research analyst with my current team. The team and I, we joined Aristotle Atlantic in 2016 when we made the move from the asset management group of a large bank. Here at Aristotle Atlantic, we manage equity funds across both core and the growth strategies.

Now in my role as a senior research analyst on the team, as you mentioned, my areas of investment focus are the information technology sector, the energy sector and the materials sector, but with my primary focus being the technology sector. And this includes investing in leading companies in the software, semiconductor, and the hardware industries.

Alex Warren: Wonderful. Thank you, Nick.

Now, what do you believe makes Aristotle Atlantic unique?

Nicholas Daft: I would highlight two features that I think make Aristotle Atlantic unique.

One is the industry experience and longevity of the team. The five of us on the team have an average of 26 years of industry experience, and the average tenure of the members of the team is 17 years. We’ve worked together through many different economic cycles and events, and so we have had the benefit of experiencing a wide variety of market conditions, which we leverage as part of our investment process.

Another area of focus I would highlight, it’s the three pillars of our investing process. Those three pillars are secular themes, product cycles, and cyclical trends. We use these three pillars as the foundation for our specific company research. Within these three secular themes is the largest driver of our research process that underpins the portfolio investments.

What we’re looking for is themes, these secular themes that we believe represent significant longer-term shifts in spending across either the public or the private sector. And then within that theme, we use our bottom-up fundamental research to identify specific company investments that we believe will see out-sized returns from those secular theme-driven spending shifts.

And so today’s podcast subject, cybersecurity, it’s one of those secular themes, one of those 20 secular themes in fact that we’ve identified as part of our investment outlook, and we see it as a key beneficiary of increased spending by both business and governments over a multi-year period.

Alex Warren: Wonderful. Thank you, Nick. That leads to my next question.

Can you provide an overview of why you believe cybersecurity represents an investible secular theme?

Nicholas Daft: Absolutely. Happy to. In my research over the past few years, I’ve identified cybersecurity as a leading share gainer in IT budgets, and this has been happening as the digital world continues to transform and evolve at a rapid pace. If you look at companies that are investing in the digital capabilities, these enhance internal efficiencies, and they improve customer experiences and interactions.

As an example, let’s think about team members at companies around the world. They collaborate on work presentations with their colleagues who are also around the world. They’re doing this in real time using software tools such as Microsoft Teams. Or think about how easy it is to bank and shop online through your smartphone, or order groceries through your Alexa speaker, things like that. All of these they’re simple but powerful examples of the role of digital transformation in our everyday lives. But while these investments in digital technologies make our lives easier and more productive, we also have to realize the increased risks that come from this connectivity, and that’s the increased risks from cyber criminals.

The reliance on technology by businesses and consumers, it means more data is created. It’s estimated to be about two megabytes per second per person. And much of this data, it’s stored online in the cloud, which means more areas where data is exposed to attacks and vulnerabilities. And unfortunately, just as you and I benefit from this new technology in our daily lives, there are estimated to be 2000 hacking groups and cyber criminals around the world, and they’re using the same technology, the same technological advancements to increase the frequency and sophistication of their attacks.

So what this means is that businesses, they need to invest in cybersecurity to protect themselves as well as their customers, and they have to continue to invest each year to stay ahead of these cyber criminals, because an obsolete or an ineffective cyber defense, it leaves everyone vulnerable. So that’s why I see so much value investing in cybersecurity, in this secular theme. It’s finding those companies which offer the leading technology that is mission critical in cyber defenses that will ultimately reward investors through attractive, long-term profitable growth.

Alex Warren: Absolutely. That makes sense.

Nick, can you discuss how the digital landscape has changed over the past decade, and how has the cybersecurity market evolved with the rest of the digital market?

Nicholas Daft: Over the past decade, as businesses have shifted spending within their IT budgets as they implement these digital transformation initiatives, so the objective is ultimately to drive better business outcomes, and that’s through improving productivity and efficiency metrics. A study that was done in 2021 by a tech research firm showed the clear financial benefits from digital transformation. Companies that were far along in these initiatives have about twice the revenue growth of those that are early or haven’t even started on a digital transformation journey. It’s real tangible benefits.

So if you look at the Gartner data for worldwide IT spending from 2017 to 2022, it’s increased from about $3.5 trillion to about $4.5 trillion a year. That’s a cumulative 28% increase over those five years. But digging deeper, according to IDC, over that same time period, we see that global spending on digital transformation technologies and services, that spending has increased from just under $1 trillion to almost $1.9 trillion, and that’s cumulative spending growth of over 90%.

Alex Warren: Wow. Those are some big numbers.

Nicholas Daft: Yeah. For sure. For sure.

And so what does that mean? And what have companies done with those dollars to implement that digital transformation?

Well, we’ve seen companies shift from on-premise servers and remote networking access that was done solely through those clunky VPNs – very slow, very unwieldy types of technology, which I think it almost felt like dial up versus what we have now. Now we’ve shifted to this idea of cloud computing and the ability to access from anywhere using any device. Businesses are investing in efficiency tools provided by these infrastructure and platforms-as-a-service vendors, such as Microsoft, Azure, and Amazon’s AWS, and software-as-a-service vendors such as Salesforce.com or Adobe. Businesses have also shifted from using mail and telephone calls as contact points with customers and consumers. And now they’re spending on the engagement platforms that leverage multi-channel communication strategies like Facebook or TikTok or Instagram and Google.

So businesses have benefited with real tangible benefits. They have more data, they have better analytics, automation of workflows, improved work-from-anywhere capabilities and more efficient customer acquisition and retention strategies. But as these businesses have rushed to modernize their network and software infrastructure to capitalize on these benefits, cybersecurity has often lagged behind. And as a result, IT executives… There was a recent study where they disclosed that they have seen an increase in cyberattacks and breach rates because they haven’t kept up. So businesses, they’re tempting to use legacy solutions to protect their new cloud-based infrastructure, and because of that, there are these gaps in defenses, which creates security issues.

Alex Warren: Gotcha. That makes sense. It’s like putting old parts on a new car.

Away from some of the examples that you just shared, software is a service and that, I understand the digital transformation has made its way to industrial companies as well. Can you talk about internet of things?

Nicholas Daft: Yes. I think it’s fascinating to see the transformation taking place in industrial companies specifically. We’re seeing these companies, they’re digitizing their technology stacks and they’re leveraging 5G technology and internet of things (IOT), which just to abbreviated as IOT, they’re using these IOT devices to enhance their operations. These industrial companies, they’re using IOT for automation, remote monitoring of tools, predictive maintenance or supply chain optimization.

Another area where we see growth of IOT devices is also actually in healthcare, where hospitals use IOT for remote patient monitoring. Or in the energy space, where oil and gas producers are using them for monitoring well performance and flow rates or to predict or abnormalities that could be occurring because of pressure changes.

So these are examples of businesses using IOT to drive efficiencies and positive outcomes. And as a result, we’re seeing hyperbolic growth in the number of connected IOT devices around the world. In 2015, there were about 4 billion connected devices. That grew to 13 billion in 2022. And conservative estimates have this growing to almost 30 billion by 2030. So that’s the good news, but here’s the bad news. All these billions of devices they represent billions of new entry points for cyber criminals.

To demonstrate this, a statistic from a 2020 survey that I recently read, it was a survey of global IT professionals, and it showed 84% of organizations have IOT devices on their corporate networks. Of this group, 70%, (seven zero), 70% have had attempted or successful hacks, yet still more than 50% of these organizations are not using security measures beyond the default password. Just astounding to me.

Alex Warren: Yeah. Oh my goodness. I’m thinking about those numbers that you’re mentioning and trying to visualize the chart in my head about how big of a growth in internet of things and connected devices, what that chart must look like. And that brings me into my next question.

What are some of the common cyberattack techniques that companies are trying to protect against, and what are the consequences of these attacks?

Nicholas Daft: The most common attack threats continue to be malware, ransomware, phishing, identity-based attacks, and then denial of service (DDoS) attacks. And the objective with all these attacks is to infiltrate a company’s network and gain access to sensitive data or effectively hold the company’s network ransom for a payment.

So cyber criminals are capitalizing on the larger tax surface and the proliferation of endpoints like smartphones and IOT devices and laptops, and based on current trends, they’re successful most of the time due to the unfortunate fact of human error. There was a Stanford University study that estimated that almost 90% of all data breaches are due to human error and employee mistakes.

Alex Warren: Wow.

Nicholas Daft: Yeah. And these errors, they have massive and far-reaching implications. In 2022, the Uber network was breached when a contractor did not follow security protocols and accepted a malicious email request for two-factor authentication log on. And because of that breach or because of that acceptance, the hackers they gained access to sensitive customer data.

On a much larger national scale, there was the May 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack by a Russia-based cybercriminal group. This, too, was accomplished due to human error. They used a former employee’s password to access a VPN that wasn’t adequately secured by multi-factor authentication. I’m sure you remember, Alex, from the news stories and the photos, as a result, this attack forced the company to shut down the entire pipeline, and this pipeline supplies almost half of the US east coast supply of gasoline.

And so as a result of shutting down the pipeline, there were fuel shortages and traffic jams for people trying to get gas at gas stations because there was a shortage of gas. And this continued until the company paid a ransom to the hackers. It was about $4.5 billion, and they paid it in Bitcoin. Cyber criminals are leveraging Bitcoin. It’s a frictionless and anonymous payment method, and they’re leveraging Bitcoin, which emboldens them further to do more ransomware attacks.

Alex Warren: Absolutely. That makes sense. I can only imagine what the process is for a pipeline operator to go out and try to find or buy Bitcoin. I personally don’t know myself. So that example you gave about the pipeline leads into our next question well.

Why is cybercrime a national security concern?

Nicholas Daft: Yeah, that’s a very prominent issue, and it feels like it’s always in the headlines. It’s really over the past decade that we’ve seen a dramatic increase in state-sponsored cybercriminal activity by groups from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. These actions are often tied to economic incentive, but now, more often ,there’s an adversarial nature to the threats; corporate espionage, or the attempted theft of national intelligence.

If we go back to 2015, a pretty prominent hack, a group of hackers broke into the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), and they stole records associated with all 21 million civilian employees of the U.S. government. These stolen records they had the potential to be used for malicious purposes with a potential threat to state security.

If we look at corporate espionage, an example over a multi-year period, it was a Chinese state-sponsored hacker group known as APT41, and it’s reported that they have successfully stolen hundreds of gigabytes of technical documents and intellectual property. And the data that was stolen, is associated with manufacturing, energy and pharmaceutical companies. And digging even deeper, some of this data relates to fighter jets and missiles, so that is a real national security threat there. And in fact, cybersecurity experts believe that there is evidence that Chinese state hackers, many years ago, began a hacking campaign to steal sensitive data on the U.S. Air Force’s F-35 stealth fighter program. And then this data that was stolen was used to accelerate the Chinese development of their own stealth fighter.

So there’s national security implications, and there’s also a significant economic cost to the country. The FBI has estimated that this type of cyber theft leads to annual losses to the U.S. economy of between $225 billion and $600 billion – so, some real significant numbers.

What this shows, it shows that businesses and governments need to work together to defend against these cyber threats across their daily operations. And that includes critical business operations and national infrastructure. Just thinking about the implications, if you think about state-sponsored cybercriminal groups shutting down regional electrical grids or the US air traffic control system or the New York Stock Exchange, these would have massive negative impacts on the safety and economic life of all Americans.

Fortunately, in good news, the U.S. government is getting more proactive in addressing these increasing threats. And just recently, on March 2nd of this year, the Biden administration released a national cybersecurity strategy, and this will create a more focused plan on defending against cyberattack groups. And based on what I’ve read so far, I think it’s truly a step in the right direction.

Alex Warren: That’s good news. Good news. You gave some great… I guess not great, but more staggering examples or headlines of breaches that have taken place over the years.

What are some of the costs of these cyberattacks?

Nicholas Daft: Sure, sure. Yeah. And as you just said, none of these examples are great, and they’re all unfortunately damaging. The three different types of costs are financial, operational, and reputational, of course.

If we look at the financial side, to put a dollar figure on it: the average cost of a data breach globally in 2022 was $4.35 million. But in the U.S. that went up to %9.44 million. So the U.S. was the highest area in terms of the cost of a breach. And these costs were up over 12% versus 2020.

There are, of course, many examples where costs have been significantly higher. Taking that Uber example that I mentioned earlier: that breach required the company to pay $100,000 to delete the stolen data, but then the company was required to pay $148 million to settle a legal dispute that the company had covered up the breach.

Another attack that has garnered significant headlines recently or in the past few years was the SolarWinds breach. That one impacted an estimated 18,000 customers that used this software. And many of those customers were Fortune 500 companies. The cost of repairing the damage done by that breach, the SolarWinds breach, it’s expected to be in the tens of billions of dollars.

As hackers continue to refine their techniques and gain more advanced technology themselves, and that includes artificial intelligence (AI, there has been a noticeable uptick in ransomware attacks that require companies to pay to unlock their systems that are being held hostage. As we discussed earlier, Colonial Pipeline, they paid $4.5 million to restore their operations. And in the same year, in 2021, can Financial, which is a large insurance company, they paid $40 million to hackers to have their data unlocked after they suffered from a ransomware attack.

Alex, putting this all together, it’s very clear that the economic costs of cybercrime are large and growing. If we look at it on a global scale, a publication from Cybersecurity Ventures, estimated global costs from cybercriminal activity to be $6 trillion. That’s up from $3 trillion in 2015 and growing to over $10 trillion by 2025. And these numbers they shouldn’t leave any doubt that there’s a huge economic cost from cybercrime.

Alex Warren: Absolutely. And those are some massive numbers. I want you to put on your investor hat for a second here.

Where do you see opportunities for growth within the cybersecurity industry?

Nicholas Daft: Yeah. As the global digital transformation has accelerated, the complexity of securing the technology stack across multiple clouds and vendors has also increased. And the cybersecurity industry has, until recently, been quite fragmented with vendors being relatively siloed in their product offerings.

What I mean by this is they’re focused on one area of expertise, and IT departments at companies, they relied on multiple different vendors for the full suite of cybersecurity products. But this status quo, it’s not suitable given the rapid evolutions in cloud computing and network structures that we’re seeing, and particularly when considering the current threat environment. The increased economics of cybercrime means more R&D being spent by criminal groups, as I mentioned in one of the prior answers. This includes the use of artificial intelligence to enhance the effectiveness of their threats.

So businesses and governments they need to respond. And the key areas of investment going forward need to be in four areas of cybersecurity. That’s (1) cloud network and workload security, (2) endpoint security, (3) access management security, and (4) application security. The good news is that the focus on cybersecurity is happening at the board and C-suite level, and businesses are now prioritizing cybersecurity within their IT budgets.

A recent study by Gartner estimates that spending on cybersecurity in total will grow by low-to-mid double digits over the next few years from the 2022 level of $175 billion. And this is while IT budgets themselves will only grow in the low single digits. But within the four key areas of focus that I just highlighted; those four key areas will represent almost two thirds of this total cybersecurity spending growth.

Alex Warren: Nick, this has been a great conversation. We have time for one final question.

What companies or areas of the market do you believe can benefit most from the growth of cybersecurity?

Nicholas Daft: Yeah. In my opinion, the key beneficiaries of this increasing cybersecurity spend are next-generation cloud native companies that are exposed to the four key areas that I mentioned earlier. And these next-gen cybersecurity firms will provide a modular approach to security and integrate AI. This modular approach allows the cybersecurity companies to efficiently innovate and then deploy new defensive products to their customers, and then their customers can seamlessly integrate these new product modules into their network security stack. This facilitates the consolidation of vendors onto fewer platforms. This provides a stronger defense posture for the customer due to the reduction in breach gaps, and it also improves the ROI.

Finally, the best cybersecurity companies will be those that use artificial intelligence and machine learning to detect and prevent threats in real time. One issue that businesses and IT departments face is a shortage of trained cybersecurity experts. And so, while IT security departments will always have human oversight in some form, it is my opinion that it will be imperative for these next-gen cybersecurity providers to integrate advanced AI into their software technology. Using AI will allow for more efficient monitoring of threat signals and proactive threat hunting so businesses can identify and respond to advanced threats before they can cause damage.

So in conclusion, as the digital transformation journey continues, I believe that next-generation cloud native cybersecurity companies will be the key to defending businesses and governments from the increasing threats from malicious cybercriminals and state-sponsored hackers.

Alex Warren: That brings us to the end of this episode. Thank you so much, Nick, for joining us today. We hope you enjoyed it and learned more about Aristotle. Thanks for listening to the Power of Patience.

To learn more about Aristotle, please visit www.aristotlecap.com, or follow the link to the show notes. If you enjoyed the show, please rate and review us on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And come back next time for a discussion on Aristotle Pacific Capital. Until then, this is Alex Warren, and thank you for listening.

DISCLOSURE

The term “Aristotle” is used to represent the family of affiliates which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, and Aristotle Atlantic Partners; which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

The term “Aristotle” is used to represent the family of affiliates which is comprised of Aristotle Capital Management, Aristotle Capital Boston, Aristotle Credit Partners, and Aristotle Atlantic Partners; which collectively operate under a unified platform known as Aristotle. Each firm is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

Summary

U.S. corporate credit markets ended the quarter broadly higher, as U.S. yields declined while credit spreads were mixed. High yield bonds outperformed by a small margin, as the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index returned 3.57%. Investment grade corporate bonds and bank loans also finished higher, with the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index rising 3.50% and the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index gaining 3.11%. Lower yields supported fixed income more broadly, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 2.96% in the first quarter.

The U.S. equity market also rallied, as the S&P 500 Index gained 7.50% during the quarter. Despite a round trip in rate hike expectations, concerns around persistent inflation, underwhelming earnings and a banking crisis in March, risk assets ended the quarter on a strong note. Concerning the U.S. economic data, inflation showed signs of easing slightly in February, with the annual inflation rate slowing to 6.0%, the lowest since September 2021, and in line with market forecasts. The U.S. labor market continued to hold in strong with better-than-expected non-farm payrolls prints in January and February, while the unemployment rate edged up slightly from a 50-year low to 3.6% in February. While the events in the banking sector in March included the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) swift response combined with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) announcement of a new emergency liquidity facility helped quell short-term fears of contagion. Nonetheless, worries about tighter credit conditions, deposit flight and exposure to other areas of concern, including commercial real estate, weighed on the sector through the end of the quarter.

The Fed continued to gradually increase interest rates in the first quarter, hiking by 25 basis points at its February and March meetings and bringing its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, the highest level since 2007. While the market was concerned about financial stability risks ahead of the March meeting, the Fed acknowledged inflation remains elevated and stated further rate hikes may be necessary. Nonetheless, Chairman Powell also recognized the series of rate hikes over the past year are still making their way through the economy and, while not the Fed’s base case, he opened the door to the possibility of rate cuts later this year should inflation fall faster than expected.

Market Environment

U.S. Treasury yields, particularly in the short end, experienced significant volatility in the first quarter, as the market digested changing expectations around the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. The yield on the U.S. 2-year note jumped more than 100 basis points from early February to early March, only to fall nearly 150 basis points in mid-March and end the quarter roughly 36 basis points lower. To put this in perspective, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in mid-March, the 3-day slide in yield on the 2-year note was the largest since 1987. The yield on the U.S. 10-year note fell roughly 39 basis points during the quarter, while the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes briefly fell below 100 basis points in March, the most inverted since 1981, before rebounding into the end of the quarter.

While U.S. corporate credit spreads ended the quarter near where they were at the end of last year, credit spreads also experienced significant volatility. High yield bond spreads tightened below 400 basis points in early February, widened to above 500 basis points in late March and ended the quarter roughly 14 basis points tighter, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index. Investment grade corporate bond spreads widened modestly, ending the first quarter roughly 8 basis points wider, largely driven by wider spreads in banking.

Issuance in the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets dropped off sharply at the end of the first quarter. After a pickup in the primary market in January, high yield bond issuance slowed significantly in March, with year-to-date issuance totaling just over $40 billion, a 13% decline compared to the same period a year earlier. Leveraged loan issuance experienced an even sharper decline, with issuance totaling roughly $70 billion, a 42% decline compared to the prior year. Despite the slowest March in a decade for investment grade corporate bond issuance, total issuance topped $390 billion in the first quarter, which falls in the middle of the historical range over the last ten years.

Retail flows exhibited a flight to safety during the first quarter, as high yield bond and leveraged loan funds continued to experience outflows, and investment grade corporate bond funds saw inflows. After outflows topped $48 billion in 2022, a record annual outflow, high yield bond funds experienced further outflows of roughly $16 billion during the first quarter. Outflows from leveraged loan funds accelerated in March, totaling just over $9 billion for the quarter compared to nearly $13 billion of outflows in 2022. Investment grade corporate bond funds experienced a reversal from 2022, as year-to-date inflows topped $21 billion. Despite persistent outflows, negative net issuance and a supply/demand imbalance have helped support the overall high yield bond and bank loan markets over the past several months.

Within the high yield bond universe, lower-quality bonds had the strongest returns during the quarter, as ‘CCC’s (+4.96%) outperformed ‘B’s (+3.47%) and ‘BB’s (+3.44%). From an industry perspective, Lodging & Leisure (+8.49%) outperformed, while Banking (-0.41%) underperformed. Defaults and distressed exchanges picked up in the first quarter, with the year-to-date total already amounting to 43% of 2022’s total. The 12-month trailing, par-weighted U.S. high yield default rate, including distressed exchanges, rose roughly 30 basis points to 1.91% (1.27%, excluding distressed exchanges), below the long-term historical average of 3.20% (2.90%, excluding distressed exchanges). Meanwhile, the loan par-weighted default rate, including distressed exchanges, ended March at 2.22% (1.72%, excluding distressed exchanges), below the long-term historical average of 3.10% (3.00%, excluding distressed exchanges).

Performance and Attribution Summary

High Yield Bond

The Aristotle High Yield Bond Composite returned 2.82% gross of fees (2.76% net of fees) in the first quarter, underperforming the 3.55% return of the ICE BofA BB-B U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Constrained Index. Security selection was the primary detractor from relative performance, while industry allocation contributed to relative performance.

Security selection detracted from relative performance led by holdings in Telecommunications and Lodging & Leisure. This was partially offset by selection in Media & Entertainment and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) & Real Estate-Related. Sector rotation also detracted from relative performance led by the allocation to cash. The allocations to investment grade corporate bonds and bank loans also detracted from relative performance. Industry allocation contributed to relative performance led by overweights in Lodging & Leisure and Transportation. This was partially offset by overweights in Media & Entertainment and Gaming.

Top Five Contributors Top Five Detractors
QVC Level 3 Financing
AMC Networks Carnival
American Airlines iHeartMedia
DISH NetworkTitan International
Lions Gate Capital Gray Television
*Bold securities held in representative account

Investment Grade Corporate

The Aristotle Investment Grade Corporate Bond Composite returned 3.66% gross of fees (3.60% net of fees) in the first quarter, outperforming the 3.50% return of the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index. Security selection was the primary contributor to relative performance, while industry allocation detracted from relative performance.

Security selection contributed to relative performance led by holdings in Transportation and Brokerage. This was partially offset by selection in Banking and REITs & Real Estate-Related. Industry allocation detracted from relative performance led by overweights in Insurance and REITs & Real Estate-related. This was partially offset by an overweight in Pipelines & Distributors and an underweight in Healthcare. Sector rotation also detracted from relative performance, led by the allocation to cash. There were no offsetting contributors. Additionally, short duration positioning and yield curve positioning marginally detracted from relative performance.

Top Five Contributors Top Five Detractors
Warner Bros DiscoveryMetLife
United AirlinesAlexandria Real Estate
Brookfield FinanceWells Fargo
Brown & BrownFifth Third Bank
JetBlueBank of America
*Bold securities held in representative account

Strategic Credit

The Aristotle Strategic Credit Composite returned 2.61% gross of fees (2.49% net of fees1) in the first quarter, underperforming the 3.03% return of the blended benchmark of one-third Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Ba/B 2% Issuer Capped Bond Index, one-third Bloomberg U.S. Intermediate Corporate Bond Index and one-third Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index. Security selection was the primary detractor from relative performance. Industry allocation and sector rotation also detracted from relative performance.

Security selection detracted from relative performance led by holdings in Lodging & Leisure and Telecommunications. This was partially offset by selection in Banking and Transportation. Industry allocation also detracted from relative performance led by overweights in Telecommunications and Pipelines & Distributors. This was partially offset by overweights in Lodging & Leisure and Media & Entertainment. Additionally, sector rotation detracted marginally from relative performance led by an underweight in bank loans and the allocation to cash. This was mostly offset by an underweight in investment grade corporate bonds and an overweight in high yield bonds.

1As of March 31, 2023, 31% of the Composite consisted of a non-fee-paying account.

Top Five Contributors Top Five Detractors
MGM ResortsLumen Technologies
Service Properties TrustQVC
R.R. Donnelley & SonsTitan International
Tri Pointe HomesEnergy Transfer
United AirlinesDISH
*Bold securities held in representative account

Outlook

While uncertainty has increased since the end of 2022, we believe U.S. corporate credit remains healthy given strong corporate balance sheets and reasonable levels of leverage. While the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing and the recent shock to the banking system is likely to lead to tighter financial conditions, we believe U.S. corporate credit markets are in better shape than they have been ahead of other slowdowns. In our opinion, more caution is warranted, but we continue to see the opportunity for positive total returns in U.S. corporate credit given higher levels of carry and strong fundamentals.

The Fed’s focus over the past year has been on persistent, elevated inflation, but following recent turmoil in the banking sector, we believe they will now also be keeping a close eye on overall market stability. We believe the knock-on effects of the Fed’s hiking cycle, which began just over one year ago, are still making their way through the U.S. economy. We see the current issues with regional banks as a byproduct of the delayed impact of monetary policy, following years of easy monetary policy. While goods and commodity inflation has shown some signs of abating, services inflation remains elevated, and in our opinion, the Fed may respond with another hike or two in the coming months. As a result, we believe rates have some room to climb modestly over the next quarter.

We believe the overall U.S. economy has shown signs of resilience, as supply chains ease, the labor market remains tight and consumer spending holds up. We also recognize tighter financial conditions will, more than likely, weaken the economy. Despite recent signs of the labor market softening in certain areas (e.g., technology), we hold the view that the overall job market remains historically tight and should be relatively resilient in the event of a mild downturn. Consumer spending showed signs of slowing in the first quarter, with consumers beginning to feel the impact of higher rates. In our view, consumer spending and the labor market will continue to be critical areas to watch, as the effects of restrictive monetary policy work their way through the U.S. economy, increasing the potential for a recession this year.

Technical factors remain supportive of U.S. corporate credit markets, with net issuance and supply/demand dynamics offsetting outflows, particularly in the high yield bond and bank loan markets. This has been supportive of credit spreads, which were largely lower in the first quarter, excluding wider spreads for Financials. Additionally, as the Fed nears the end of its hiking cycle, we believe the U.S. Treasury market should be relatively well supported. Nonetheless, the effects of quantitative tightening (QT) have not yet fully impacted markets, as the Fed’s balance sheet tightening has been offset by increased liquidity from global central banks, including the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China. In our opinion, as QT continues, it will likely lead to lower liquidity and more uncertainty, which can ultimately lead to higher real rates. However, in our view, corporate credit markets should be able to weather such conditions.

In our opinion, U.S. companies are in overall better shape than they have been in the past when entering a period of economic softness. We believe most corporate balance sheets are strong, debt levels are reasonable and near-term maturities have been managed well. Furthermore, we think companies learned many lessons after 2008/09 and have done a better job managing leverage and liquidity in recent years. While risk-free rates can rise and credit spreads can widen from here, in our opinion, the U.S. corporate credit market can absorb some economic weakness. We believe many companies are in a better place than they were heading into prior downturns. Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic and expect modestly positive total returns, as U.S. corporate credit markets should be able to withstand a mild downturn.

High Yield Bond Positioning

In our high yield portfolios, we remain underweight duration relative to the benchmark and continue to focus on credit risk in the front end of the curve. While we are still cautious on most cyclical sectors, especially goods-related cyclicals, we remain positive on experience-related cyclicals.

While the yield curve remains inverted, we continue to see more opportunities to add credit risk on the front end of the curve. Given high yield credit spreads have tightened since the end of 2022, we continue to avoid going much further down in quality. Considering we believe the economy may be headed for a slowdown, we will focus on discipline in credit selection as we evaluate opportunities ahead.

We still see an opportunity in credits that should benefit from a rebound in consumer spending on experiences this year, such as Transportation and Travel & Leisure. We also favor commodity-related sectors. For example, we believe U.S. oil producers will be more disciplined in this cycle, as they more carefully moderate supply growth. At the end of the quarter, we held overweights in Transportation, Media & Entertainment and Energy alongside underweights in Technology, Telecommunications and Cable & Satellite.

Investment Grade Corporate Positioning

In our investment grade corporate bond portfolios, we modestly increased duration and are looking for opportunities further out the curve. Similar to our high yield bond portfolios, we remain cautious on most cyclical sectors while focusing on experience-related cyclicals and commodity-related credits.

After being underweight duration for much of the past year, we are moving to a more neutral stance. We continue to look for yield in junior subordinated bank securities. However, our banking exposure is concentrated on the largest money center banks, which we view as relatively well-positioned despite lingering risks to regional banks.

From an industry perspective, the largest overweights and underweights in the portfolio were unchanged compared to the prior quarter. At the end of the quarter, we held overweights in REITs & Real Estate-Related, Insurance and Finance Companies alongside underweights in Banking, Retailers & Restaurants and Pharmaceuticals.

Strategic Credit Positioning

In our strategic credit portfolios, overall asset allocation was largely unchanged, and we kept duration positioning largely in line with the blended benchmark. At the industry level, adjustments to the general risk profile were similar to those made in our high yield bond portfolios.

During the quarter, we did not make any tactical changes to the portfolio related to sector rotation. High yield bonds remain the largest allocation in the portfolio. On the margin, we slightly reduced an overweight in high yield bonds, while slightly decreasing an underweight in investment grade corporate bonds. Bank loan exposure remains unchanged as the largest underweight position.

As of March 31, the strategy was composed of 67.1% high yield bonds, 26.3% investment grade corporate bonds and 4.1% bank loans. Roughly 2.5% was held in cash. We held overweights in Energy, Lodging & Leisure and Pipelines & Distributors alongside underweights in Technology, Industrials and Healthcare.

Disclosures

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. There are risks specifically associated with fixed income investments such as interest rate risk and credit risk. Bond values fluctuate in price in response to market conditions. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. This risk may be more pronounced for bonds with longer-term maturities. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. High yield securities are generally rated lower than investment grade securities and may be subject to greater market fluctuations, increased price volatility, risk of issuer default, less liquidity, or loss of income and principal compared to investment grade securities.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass.

Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Credit does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Credit Partners, LLC (Aristotle Credit) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report are or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Credit makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Credit High Yield Bond strategy, the Aristotle Credit Investment Grade Corporate Bond strategy and the Aristotle Credit Strategic Credit strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Credit reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. For a full list of all recommendations made by Aristotle Credit during the last 12 months, please contact us at (949) 681-2100. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Composite and benchmark returns reflect the reinvestment of income.

Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Strategic Credit Returns – Composite and benchmark returns reflect the reinvestment of income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Model Net Performance: Composite returns are presented net of the highest fee charged.

Aristotle Credit Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Credit, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACP-2304-17

Performance Disclosures

Sources: SS&C Advent; FTSE

*Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

**2014 is a partial-year period of nine months, representing data from April 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014.

***2009 is a partial-year period of ten months, representing data from March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. The Aristotle High Yield Bond strategy has an inception date of April 1, 2014; however, the strategy initially began at Douglas Lopez’s predecessor firm. A supplemental performance track record from March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2013 (Mr. Lopez’s departure from the firm) is provided. The returns are based on a separate account from the strategy while it was being managed at Doug Lopez’s predecessor firm and performance results are based on custodian data. During this time, Mr. Lopez had primary responsibility for managing the account. Please refer to disclosures at the end of this document.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg

*Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

**2014 is a partial-year period of eight months, representing data from May 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014.

***2009 is a partial-year period of four months, representing data from September 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. The primary benchmark was retroactively changed from Bloomberg U.S. Credit Bond Index to Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index effective March 31, 2017. The Aristotle Investment Grade Corporate Bond strategy has an inception date of May 1, 2014; however, the strategy initially began at Terence Reidt’s predecessor firm. A supplemental performance track record from September 1, 2009 to December 31, 2013 (Mr. Reidt’s departure from the firm) is provided. The returns are based on a separate account from the strategy while it was being managed at Terence Reidt’s predecessor firm and performance results are based on custodian data. During this time, Mr. Reidt had primary responsibility for managing the account. Please refer to disclosures at the end of this document.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

*Blended benchmark represents a blend of blend of 1/3 Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Ba/B 2% Issuer Capped Bond Index, 1/3 Bloomberg U.S. Intermediate Corporate Bond Index and 1/3 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index. The Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Loans Index was retired on September 30, 2016 and was replaced with the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index effective October 1, 2016.

**Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

***2015 is a partial-year period of eleven months, representing data from February 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Composite and benchmark returns reflect the reinvestment of income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Model Net Performance: Composite returns are presented net of the highest fee charged. Please refer to disclosures at the end of this document.

Index Disclosures

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base, market capitalization-weighted bond market index representing intermediate term investment grade bonds traded in the United States. The Index is frequently used as a stand-in for measuring the performance of the U.S. bond market. In addition to investment grade corporate debt, the Index tracks government debt, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS) to simulate the universe of investable bonds that meet certain criteria. In order to be included in the Index, bonds must be of investment grade or higher, have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million and have at least one year until maturity. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes securities publicly issued by U.S. and non-U.S. industrial, utility and financial issuers that are all U.S. dollar denominated. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index is a component of the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Bond Index. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The ICE Bank of America (ICE BofA) BB-B U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Constrained Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar-denominated BB-rated and B-rated corporate debt issued in the U.S. domestic market, a fixed coupon schedule and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million, issued publicly. Allocations to an individual issuer in the Index will not exceed 2%. The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index is a market-weighted index designed to track the performance of the investable universe of the U.S. dollar-denominated leveraged loan market. The Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Ba/B 2% Issuer Capped Bond Index is an issuer-constrained version of the U.S. Corporate High Yield Index that measures the market of U.S. dollar-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds rated Ba/B. The Index limits the maximum exposure to any one issuer to 2%. The Bloomberg U.S. Intermediate Corporate Bond Index is designed to measure the performance of U.S. corporate bonds that have a maturity of greater than or equal to one year and less than 10 years. The Index includes investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, U.S. dollar-denominated debt with $250 million or more par amount outstanding, issued by U.S. and non-U.S. industrial, utility and financial institutions. Yield to worst (YTW) is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond that fully operates within the terms of its contract without defaulting. The volatility (beta) of the Composites may be greater or less than the indices. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices. Composite and index returns reflect the reinvestment of income.

Markets Review

The U.S. equity market finished higher for the first quarter of the year, as the S&P 500 Index rose 7.50% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2.96% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart by 13.36% during the quarter.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Seven out of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Value Index finished higher for the quarter, with Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary gaining the most. Meanwhile, Health Care, Financials and Energy were the worst-performing sectors.

Although inflation remained well above its historical average of 3.26%, the pace of price increases moderated during the quarter. As such, for the 12-month periods ending in January and February, annualized CPI figures declined from 6.4% to 6.0%, respectively. The pattern of disinflation was partly driven by decreases in the price of fuel, used vehicles and medical care services. The government also reported a deceleration in U.S. economic growth, as GDP increased 2.6% in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s 3.2% increase. Weaker consumer spending and business investment were significant factors in the softer results. However, retail sales in January jumped 3%, and the labor market remained tight, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%.

While some economic data points trended in a positive direction, the market was shocked with the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history. The value of SVB’s bond holdings had plunged amid rapidly increasing interest rates, creating a shortfall as clients (largely composed of tech startups) withdrew their deposits, eventually leading to a run on the bank’s deposits. Just days later, regulators also took control of New York-based Signature Bank. The speed and size of the bank failures sent U.S. bank share prices tumbling. To provide stability, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of an emergency lending facility that would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets (e.g., Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset (instead of the market value). Additionally, First Citizens Bank announced that it had made an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for a whole bank purchase with loss share coverage of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.1

Despite the turmoil in the banking system, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed its course, increasing its benchmark rate by 0.25% in March (its ninth consecutive rate hike) to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, noting that banking events may contribute to a more restrictive credit environment, the Fed tempered its stance that further rate increases are necessary to restore price stability and achieve its 2% inflation target. Rather, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the reliance on incoming data to inform the future path of monetary policy, as conditions may have tightened more than economic indices currently suggest.

On the corporate earnings front, results and guidance were broadly underwhelming, with only 68% of S&P 500 companies exceeding EPS estimates (below the five-year average of 77%) and 67% of companies providing negative EPS guidance (above the five-year average of 59%). Overall, the S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings of 4.9% as inflation and recession remained prevalent topics, with 332 and 148 companies mentioning those words on earnings calls, respectively. Nevertheless, in spite of the weaker-than-expected results, there have also been positive remarks of cost cutting, moderating input price pressures and better supply-chain dynamics.

Performance and Attribution Summary

For the first quarter of 2023, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of 13.05% net of fees (13.07% gross of fees), underperforming the 14.37% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

Performance (%)1Q231 Year3 Years5 YearsSince Inception*
Focus Growth Composite (gross)13.07-16.8012.8610.6810.21
Focus Growth Composite (net)13.05-16.8912.7510.429.95
Russell 1000 Growth Index14.37-10.9018.5813.6512.79
*The Focus Growth Composite has an inception date of March 1, 2018. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Sources: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to allocation effects, while security selection modestly contributed. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, as well as an overweight in Health Care detracted the most from performance. Conversely, security selection in Information Technology, Financials and Health Care contributed to relative results.

Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2023

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
NvidiaTesla
MSCIDollar General
IDEXX LaboratoriesDarling Ingredients
CrowdStrike HoldingsNorfolk Southern
ON SemiconductorBio-Techne

Contributors

Nvidia

Nvidia contributed to outperformance, as the company announced better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings driven by a strong rebound in Gaming and an improving outlook for the Datacenter business due to the acceleration of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) driven Artifical Intelligence (AI) deployment. The company also hosted its Global Technology Conference (GTC) in March where it further highlighted its leading technology being used to develop AI Large Language Models (LLM). The company announced new partnerships with hyperscalers for its AI cloud-based service while also releasing new software and hardware offerings that will support GPU-driven AI growth.  Nvidia continues to see a growing addressable market for its products and services as AI uses become more prevalent.

MSCI

MSCI contributed to performance in the first quarter following better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings results, highlighting the company’s ability to grow despite macroeconomic headwinds. Management continued focusing on expense efficiency gains while investing in long-term growth opportunities. MSCI reiterated its bullish view on its ESG/Climate business outlook.

Detractors

Tesla

Tesla was a negative contributor to performance due to our underweight position relative to Russell 1000 Growth Index, as the company had strong performance in Q1. The strength occurred after the company partially reversed a previously announced price cut for its electric vehicles following a period of strong demand. Tesla also reported better-than-expected results for Q4 2022 during the first quarter. 

Dollar General

Dollar General shares underperformed on a rotation out of more defensive consumer names at the start of the year despite growing concerns of a slowdown in the economy and the coinciding effects on consumer spending.  During the first quarter, Dollar General reported solid comps, as their core lower-income consumer remained resilient despite rising inflation.    

Recent Portfolio Activity

The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.

BuysSells
ON SemiconductorHorizon Therapeutics
Tesla

Buys

ON Semiconductor

ON Semiconductor supplies analog, standard logic and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The company provides industry leading intelligent sensing and power solutions to help its customers solve the most challenging problems and create cutting edge products for a better future. Its extensive portfolio of sensors, power management, connectivity, custom and SoC, analog, logic, timing and discrete devices helps customers efficiently solve design challenges in advanced electronic systems and products. ON Semiconductor’s devices perform power and signal control, and interface functions appear in a wide range of end-user markets including automotive, communications, computing, consumer, medical, industrial, networking, telecom and aerospace/defense. Most of ON Semiconductor’s sales come from the Asia/Pacific region.

We see ON Semiconductor attractively valued and leveraged to attractive areas of end-market growth over the next few years. The company is gaining both semiconductor content and seeing better pricing tailwinds due to demand exceeding supply and more complex semiconductor content. We see these trends continuing to provide 2023 tailwinds and fully expect strong growth rates in electric vehicle penetration over the next five years.

Tesla

Tesla Motors designs, develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance, technologically advanced electric cars and solar energy generation and energy storage products. Tesla sells more than five fully electric cars, among others, the Model X and Y SUVs, as well as the Model S sedan and Model 3 sedan. The company has a growing global network of Tesla Superchargers, which are industrial grade, high-speed vehicle chargers, typically placed along well-traveled routes and in and around dense city centers to allow Tesla owners quick and reliable charging. Tesla offers certain advanced driver assist systems under its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options. US customers generate nearly half of Tesla’s sales.

We see Tesla as the leading manufacturer of battery powered electric vehicles (EVs). The company has achieved scaled production of EVs before the other large automobile manufacturers.  The company’s technology in battery production and self-driving technology is more mature than competitors’ offerings.  EVs are one of the fastest growing categories within automobile manufacturing. The profit margin in the automotive segment is significantly above automotive competitors which provides the company flexibility to price its vehicles more strategically as the competition eventually scales up their EV production. The direct-to-consumer sales model gives the company more control over its relationship with its customers as well as a source of higher profit margin since there is no dealership share of the profits.

Sells

Horizon Therapeutics

We sold Horizon after Amgen announced their intention to acquire Horizon for $116.50 per share. The deal is expected to close in mid-year 2023.

Outlook

The impact of the Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the banking issues of the past month added to the concern of a potential economic recession. With goods inflation largely under control, labor costs will remain the focal point to achieving the stated goal of 2% inflation. With the labor market still tight, the Federal Reserve may well raise rates another 25 basis points with the peak in Fed Funds at 5.00% to 5.25%. Fed Funds Futures continue to point to the potential for a pivot into an easing cycle and this has supported the rise in equity prices. We believe the most likely outcome is for the Federal Reserve to pause for a period to access the impact to inflation of the rise in interest rates and shrinking of the balance sheet. Equity markets will focus on the impact this has had on the economy and the potential for a contraction in corporate profits. Equity valuation levels remain elevated and with the prospects for a decline in profits this sets up for a difficult path for higher equity prices.  The major support continues to be the prospect of a shift to a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Little progress has been made in dealing with the Debt Ceiling which will add a level of uncertainty and volatility to markets. With the war in Ukraine passing the one-year mark, there has been no progress toward a resolution adding to the uncertainty. With many of the sizable legislative packages passed now entering the phase of rule writing, markets will have more clarity on where these funds will flow. This should be one of the bright spots in a challenging economic outlook. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.

1https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.  AAP-2304-31

Performance Disclosures

Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2023 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Index Disclosures

The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

For more on Focus Growth, access the latest resources.

Markets Review

The U.S. equity market finished higher for the first quarter of the year, as the S&P 500 Index rose 7.50% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2.96% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart by 13.36% during the quarter.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Seven out of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Value Index finished higher for the quarter, with Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary gaining the most. Meanwhile, Health Care, Financials and Energy were the worst-performing sectors.

While some economic data points trended in a positive direction, the market was shocked with the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history. The value of SVB’s bond holdings had plunged amid rapidly increasing interest rates, creating a shortfall as clients (largely composed of tech startups) withdrew their deposits, eventually leading to a run on the bank’s deposits. Just days later, regulators also took control of New York-based Signature Bank. The speed and size of the bank failures sent U.S. bank share prices tumbling. To provide stability, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of an emergency lending facility that would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets (e.g., Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset (instead of the market value). Additionally, First Citizens Bank announced that it had made an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for a whole bank purchase with loss share coverage of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.1

Despite the turmoil in the banking system, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed its course, increasing its benchmark rate by 0.25% in March (its ninth consecutive rate hike) to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, noting that banking events may contribute to a more restrictive credit environment, the Fed tempered its stance that further rate increases are necessary to restore price stability and achieve its 2% inflation target. Rather, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the reliance on incoming data to inform the future path of monetary policy, as conditions may have tightened more than economic indices currently suggest.

On the corporate earnings front, results and guidance were broadly underwhelming, with only 68% of S&P 500 companies exceeding EPS estimates (below the five-year average of 77%) and 67% of companies providing negative EPS guidance (above the five-year average of 59%). Overall, the S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings of 4.9% as inflation and recession remained prevalent topics, with 332 and 148 companies mentioning those words on earnings calls, respectively. Nevertheless, in spite of the weaker-than-expected results, there have also been positive remarks of cost cutting, moderating input price pressures and better supply-chain dynamics a sector basis, nine out of eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth Index finished higher for the quarter, with Utilities, Industrials and Health Care gaining the most. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services posted the largest declines and Information Technology rose the least.

Performance and Attribution Summary

For the first quarter of 2023, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of 12.16% net of fees (12.26% gross of fees), underperforming the 14.37% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

Performance (%) 1Q231 Year3 Years5 YearsSince Inception*
Large Cap Growth Composite (gross)12.26-14.7615.3812.2615.01
Large Cap Growth Composite (net)12.16-15.0414.9511.8314.57
Russell 1000 Growth Index14.37-10.9018.5813.6516.00

*The Large Cap Growth Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Sources: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to security selection and allocation effects. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, as well as an overweight in Health Care, detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Information Technology and Health Care, as well as a lack of exposure to Energy, contributed to relative returns.

Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2023

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
NvidiaTesla
ON SemiconductorNorfolk Southern
CrowdStrike HoldingsHome Depot
Tenable HoldingsBio-Techne
UnitedHealth GroupDarling Ingredients

Contributors

Nvidia

Nvidia contributed to outperformance, as the company announced better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings driven by a strong rebound in Gaming and an improving outlook for the Datacenter business due to the acceleration of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) driven Artifical Intelligence (AI) deployment. The company also hosted its Global Technology Conference (GTC) in March where it further highlighted its leading technology being used to develop AI Large Language Models (LLM). The company announced new partnerships with hyperscalers for its AI cloud-based service while also releasing new software and hardware offerings that will support GPU-driven AI growth. Nvidia continues to see a growing addressable market for its products and services as AI uses become more prevalent.

ON Semiconductor

ON Semiconductors contributed to outperformance, as the company’s fourth quarter earnings were slightly better than expected and the company’s outlook supports continued strength in the Silicon Carbide (SiC) market growth for EV customers. The company also announced another new key customer win to supply BMW with SiC for its EV, and this further builds on the company’s long-term supply agreement pipeline. The company continues to reiterate its SiC growth target for 2023 and expects gross margins to continue to improve, as its new SiC production facilities ramp.

Detractors

Tesla

Tesla was a negative contributor to performance due to our underweight position relative to Russell 1000 Growth Index, as the company had strong performance in Q1. The strength occurred after the company partially reversed a previously announced price cut for its electric vehicles following a period of strong demand. Tesla also reported better-than-expected results for Q4 2022 during the first quarter.

Norfolk Southern

Norfolk Southern underperformed in the first quarter of 2023 following the derailment of a train in Ohio in early February. Although there were no fatalities or injuries in the accident, chemical spills and a controlled burn of the contents of some tanker cars raised concern for long-term environmental impact, the associated cost of the cleanup and the increased risk of more stringent government regulations.

Recent Portfolio Activity

The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.

BuysSells
ON SemiconductorHorizon Therapeutics
Enphase EnergyDynatrace
Chart Industries
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
Tesla

Buys

ON Semiconductor

ON Semiconductor supplies analog, standard logic and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The company provides industry leading intelligent sensing and power solutions to help its customers solve the most challenging problems and create cutting edge products for a better future. Its extensive portfolio of sensors, power management, connectivity, custom and SoC, analog, logic, timing and discrete devices helps customers efficiently solve design challenges in advanced electronic systems and products. ON Semiconductor’s devices perform power and signal control, and interface functions appear in a wide range of end-user markets including automotive, communications, computing, consumer, medical, industrial, networking, telecom and aerospace/defense. Most of ON Semiconductor’s sales come from the Asia/Pacific region.

We see ON Semiconductor attractively valued and leveraged to attractive areas of end-market growth over the next few years. The company is gaining both semiconductor content and seeing better pricing tailwinds due to demand exceeding supply and more complex semiconductor content. We see these trends continuing to provide 2023 tailwinds and fully expect strong growth rates in electric vehicle penetration over the next five years.

Enphase Energy

Enphase Energy designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions in the U.S. and internationally for the solar industry. The company is the world’s leading manufacturer of microinverters that convert solar-generated D.C. energy to A.C. energy usable in homes and buildings. Enphase introduced the world’s first microinverter system in 2008 and has expanded its offerings to include battery storage systems and proprietary technologies that provide energy monitoring and control services for solar energy systems. It sells its products and solutions directly to solar system distributors, large installers and strategic partners.

We see Enphase having a substantial market share that is gained through a premium product offering, superior customer service and the development of a large and diverse network of solar installers and distributors. The company’s products and services address a growing residential solar market. Coupling battery backup systems with existing and newly installed residential solar systems could accelerate the company’s revenue and earnings growth over the next several years, in our view. Additionally, commercial and international expansion offer additional revenue and earnings upside. Enphase also plans to expand manufacturing capacity in the U.S. during 2023 to benefit from tax incentives related to domestic production included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Chart Industries

Chart Industries is a leading independent global manufacturer of highly engineered equipment servicing multiple applications in the Energy and Industrial Gas markets. Its unique product portfolio is used in every phase of the liquid gas supply chain, including upfront engineering, service and repair. Being at the forefront of the clean energy transition, Chart is a leading provider of technology, equipment and services related to liquefied natural gas, hydrogen, biogas and CO2 Capture amongst other applications. Chart’s customers are mainly large, multinational producers and distributors of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The company generates about half its sales in North America.

We see Chart Industries as a leading manufacturer of highly engineered cryogenic solutions that are used for the production and storage of industrial gases. With the exposure to energy end markets including liquified natural gas (LNG), compressed natural gas (CNG) and hydrogen, the company has the technology to ship gas from oversupplied markets to markets that do not have access to enough energy resources. Hydrogen is gaining traction as a renewable fuel due to the focus on climate change. The recent acquisition of Howden is complementary to Chart’s existing product and service offerings.

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals develops drugs with a focus on rare disease treatments. Its portfolio consists of several commercial products and multiple clinical and preclinical product candidates for the treatment of various diseases. The company’s Vimizim, Naglazyme and Aldurazyme drugs treat versions of the life-threatening genetic condition mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS), caused by a rare enzyme deficiency that prevents patients from metabolizing certain complex carbohydrates. Another drug, Kuvan, is approved to treat enzyme deficiency phenylketonuria (PKU). Additional medicines include Brineura and Palynziq.

We see BioMarin, anchored by their durable enzyme-based therapies, poised to grow from new indications, primarily Voxzogo, the first-approved treatment for Achondroplasia, and Roctavian, a drug awaiting FDA approval for the treatment of Severe Hemophilia A, with gene therapy and the ability to address a large chronically managed patient population. Additionally, the company has an early pipeline outside of these major indications in rare diseases within the usculoskeletal/metabolic, hematology, cardiovascular and CNS therapeutic focus areas. 

Tesla

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures and markets high-performance, technologically advanced electric cars and solar energy generation and energy storage products. Tesla sells more than five fully electric cars, among others, the Model X and Y SUVs, as well as the Model S sedan and Model 3 sedan. The company has a growing global network of Tesla Superchargers, which are industrial grade, high-speed vehicle chargers, typically placed along well-traveled routes and in and around dense city centers to allow Tesla owners quick and reliable charging. Tesla offers certain advanced driver assist systems under its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options. U.S. customers generate nearly half of Tesla’s sales.

We see Tesla as the leading manufacturer of battery powered electric vehicles (EVs).  The company has achieved scaled production of EVs before the other large automobile manufacturers. The company’s technology in battery production and self-driving technology is more mature than competitors’ offerings. EVs are one of the fastest growing categories within automobile manufacturing. The profit margin in the automotive segment is significantly above automotive competitors which provides the company flexibility to price its vehicles more strategically as the competition eventually scales up their EV production. The direct-to-consumer sales model gives the company more control over its relationship with its customers as well as a source of higher profit margin since there is no dealership share of the profits.

Sells

Horizon Therapeutics

We sold Horizon after Amgen announced their intention to acquire Horizon for $116.50 per share. The deal is expected to close in mid-year 2023.

Dynatrace

We sold the position in Dynatrace as were concerned about the slowdown in cloud spending due to the optimization of workload costs by businesses. The slowdown became clear in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to continue throughout 2023, as businesses rationalize their cloud migration spending due to macroeconomic headwinds.

Outlook

The impact of the Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the banking issues of the past month added to the concern of a potential economic recession. With goods inflation largely under control, labor costs will remain the focal point to achieving the stated goal of 2% inflation. With the labor market still tight, the Federal Reserve may well raise rates another 25 basis points with the peak in Fed Funds at 5.00% to 5.25%. Fed Funds Futures continue to point to the potential for a pivot into an easing cycle and this has supported the rise in equity prices. We believe the most likely outcome is for the Federal Reserve to pause for a period to access the impact to inflation of the rise in interest rates and shrinking of the balance sheet. Equity markets will focus on the impact this has had on the economy and the potential for a contraction in corporate profits. Equity valuation levels remain elevated and with the prospects for a decline in profits this sets up for a difficult path for higher equity prices.  The major support continues to be the prospect of a shift to a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Little progress has been made in dealing with the Debt Ceiling which will add a level of uncertainty and volatility to markets. With the war in Ukraine passing the one-year mark, there has been no progress toward a resolution adding to the uncertainty. With many of the sizable legislative packages passed now entering the phase of rule writing, markets will have more clarity on where these funds will flow. This should be one of the bright spots in a challenging economic outlook. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.

1 https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2304-29

Performance Disclosure

Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2023 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Index Disclosure

The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

For more on Large Cap Growth, access the latest resources.

Markets Review

The U.S. equity market finished higher for the first quarter of the year, as the S&P 500 Index rose 7.50% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2.96% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart by 13.36% during the quarter.

Nine out of eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth Index finished higher for the quarter, with Utilities, Industrials and Health Care gaining the most. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services posted the largest declines and Information Technology rose the least. Although inflation remained well above its historical average of 3.26%, the pace of price increases moderated during the quarter. As such, for the 12-month periods ending in January and February, annualized CPI figures declined from 6.4% to 6.0%, respectively. The pattern of disinflation was partly driven by decreases in the price of fuel, used vehicles and medical care services. The government also reported a deceleration in U.S. economic growth, as GDP increased 2.6% in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s 3.2% increase. Weaker consumer spending and business investment were significant factors in the softer results. However, retail sales in January jumped 3%, and the labor market remained tight, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Sustainable Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

While some economic data points trended in a positive direction, the market was shocked with the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history. The value of SVB’s bond holdings had plunged amid rapidly increasing interest rates, creating a shortfall as clients (largely composed of tech startups) withdrew their deposits, eventually leading to a run on the bank’s deposits. Just days later, regulators also took control of New York-based Signature Bank. The speed and size of the bank failures sent U.S. bank share prices tumbling. To provide stability, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of an emergency lending facility that would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets (e.g., Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset (instead of the market value). Additionally, First Citizens Bank announced that it had made an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for a whole bank purchase with loss share coverage of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.1

Despite the turmoil in the banking system, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed its course, increasing its benchmark rate by 0.25% in March (its ninth consecutive rate hike) to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, noting that banking events may contribute to a more restrictive credit environment, the Fed tempered its stance that further rate increases are necessary to restore price stability and achieve its 2% inflation target. Rather, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the reliance on incoming data to inform the future path of monetary policy, as conditions may have tightened more than economic indices currently suggest.

On the corporate earnings front, results and guidance were broadly underwhelming, with only 68% of S&P 500 companies exceeding EPS estimates (below the five-year average of 77%) and 67% of companies providing negative EPS guidance (above the five-year average of 59%). Overall, the S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings of 4.9% as inflation and recession remained prevalent topics, with 332 and 148 companies mentioning those words on earnings calls, respectively. Nevertheless, in spite of the weaker-than-expected results, there have also been positive remarks of cost cutting, moderating input price pressures and better supply-chain dynamics.  

Performance and Attribution Summary

For the first quarter of 2023, Aristotle Atlantic’s Sustainable Equity Composite posted a total return of 6.18% net of fees (6.30% gross of fees), underperforming the 14.37% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

Performance (%) 1Q231 YearSince Inception*
Sustainable Equity Composite (gross)6.30-15.06-20.80
Sustainable Equity Composite (net)6.18-15.48-21.20
Russell 1000 Growth Index14.37-10.90-6.46
*The Sustainable Equity Composite has an inception date of October 1, 2021. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Sustainable Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Source: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to security selection and allocation effects. An overweight in Health Care and Utilities, as well as security selection in Information Technology detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Health Care, Financials and Industrials contributed to relative results.

Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2023

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
NvidiaEnphase Energy
CatalentCigna Group
10X GenomicsAlexandria Real Estate Equities
CrowdStrike HoldingsTesla
Tenable HoldingsDarling Ingredients

Contributors

Nvidia

Nvidia contributed to outperformance, as the company announced better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings driven by a strong rebound in Gaming and an improving outlook for the Datacenter business due to the acceleration of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) driven Artifical Intelligence (AI) deployment. The company also hosted its Global Technology Conference (GTC) in March where it further highlighted its leading technology being used to develop AI Large Language Models (LLM). The company announced new partnerships with hyperscalers for its AI cloud-based service while also releasing new software and hardware offerings that will support GPU-driven AI growth. Nvidia continues to see a growing addressable market for its products and services as AI uses become more prevalent.

Catalent

Catalent shares outperformed in first quarter, as rumors surfaced that Danaher had expressed interest in acquiring Catalent. At this point, no deal has materialized, but Catalent also appears to be stabilizing their core drug manufacturing businesses. 

Detractors

Enphase Energy Inc

Despite strong fourth-quarter earnings results, Enphase underperformed in the first quarter primarily due to concerns about pending new regulatory requirements in California and potential macroeconomic headwinds. Updated net metering rules in California could slow the growth of residential solar installation activity in the state. At the same time, an economic recession could similarly impact installations across the U.S. However, the company remains very optimistic about its long-term growth opportunities driven by continuously updated industry-leading microinverter technology, additional product opportunities in addition to solar (e.g., batteries, EV charging) and expansion in Europe. In addition, Enphase is using taking advantage of several tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act to expand its manufacturing capacity in the U.S. aggressively.

Cigna Group

Cigna shares traded lower in the first quarter, partly on a rotation out of safe-haven health care names in the managed care sector after a strong performance in 2022. Additionally, shares were impacted by increased scrutiny on the pharmaceutical benefits manager’s (PBMs) business model. These concerns have been raised in the past and Cigna attempts to be transparent with rebates and other facets of the model. We believe shares remain attractively valued. 

Recent Portfolio Activity

The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.

BuysSells
ON SemiconductorHorizon Therapeutics
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
Zoetis
Tesla

Buys

ON Semiconductor

ON Semiconductor supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The company provides industry leading intelligent sensing and power solutions to help its customers solve the most challenging problems and create cutting edge products for a better future. Its extensive portfolio of sensors, power management, connectivity, custom and SoC, analog, logic, timing and discrete devices helps customers efficiently solve design challenges in advanced electronic systems and products. ON Semiconductor’s devices perform power and signal control, and interface functions appear in a wide range of end-user markets including automotive, communications, computing, consumer, medical, industrial, networking, telecom and aerospace/defense. Most of ON Semiconductor’s sales come from the Asia/Pacific region.

We see ON Semiconductor attractively valued and leveraged to attractive areas of end-market growth over the next few years. The company is gaining both semiconductor content and seeing better pricing tailwinds due to demand exceeding supply and more complex semiconductor content. We see these trends continuing to provide 2023 tailwinds and fully expect strong growth rates in electric vehicle penetration over the next five years..

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals develops drugs with a focus on rare disease treatments. Its portfolio consists of several commercial products and multiple clinical and preclinical product candidates for the treatment of various diseases. The company’s Vimizim, Naglazyme and Aldurazyme drugs treat versions of the life-threatening genetic condition mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS), caused by a rare enzyme deficiency that prevents patients from metabolizing certain complex carbohydrates. Another drug, Kuvan, is approved to treat enzyme deficiency phenylketonuria (PKU). Additional medicines include Brineura and Palynziq.

We see BioMarin, anchored by their durable enzyme-based therapies, poised to grow from new indications, primarily Voxzogo, the first-approved treatment for Achondroplasia, and Roctavian, a drug awaiting FDA approval for the treatment of Severe Hemophilia A, with gene therapy and the ability to address a large chronically managed patient population.  Additionally, the company has an early pipeline outside of these major indications in rare diseases within the usculoskeletal/metabolic, hematology, cardiovascular and CNS therapeutic focus areas. 

Zoetis Inc

Zoetis is a global leader in the animal health industry, focused on the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products, and services, biodevices, genetic tests and precision animal health technology. It has a diversified business, commercializing products across eight core species: dogs, cats, horses, cattle, swine, poultry, fish and sheep within seven major product categories: vaccines, parasiticides, anti-infectives, dermatology, other pharmaceutical products, medicated feed additives and animal health diagnostics. Zoetis boasts approximately 300 product lines sold in more than 100 countries around the world, making it one of the world’s largest animal health businesses. Approximately 53% of the company’s total revenue is generated from the U.S.

We believe that Zoetis is working to help improve the lives of animals which has societal benefits in the companion animal arena and within livestock, healthier animals can provide increased productivity and yield, as the growing world population seeks more safe food sources and additional sources of protein.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance, technologically advanced electric cars and solar energy generation and energy storage products. Tesla sells more than five fully electric cars, among others, the Model X and Y SUVs, as well as the Model S sedan and Model 3 sedan. The company has a growing global network of Tesla Superchargers, which are industrial grade, high-speed vehicle chargers, typically placed along well-traveled routes and in and around dense city centers to allow Tesla-owners quick and reliable charging. Tesla offers certain advanced driver assist systems under its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options. U.S. customers generate nearly half of Tesla’s sales.

We see Tesla as the leading manufacturer of battery powered electric vehicles (EVs). The company has achieved scaled production of EVs before the other large automobile manufacturers. The company’s technology in battery production and self-driving technology is more mature than competitors’ offerings. EVs are a fastest growing category within automobile manufacturing. The profit margin in the automotive segment is significantly above automotive competitors which provides the company flexibility to price its vehicles more strategically as the competition eventually scales up their EV production. The direct-to-consumer sales model gives the company more control over its relationship with its customers, as well as a source of higher profit margin since there no dealership share of the profits.

Sells

Horizon Therapeutics

We sold Horizon after Amgen announced their intention to acquire Horizon for $116.50 per share. The deal is expected to close in mid-year 2023.

Outlook

The impact of the Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the banking issues of the past month added to the concern of a potential economic recession. With goods inflation largely under control, labor costs will remain the focal point to achieving the stated goal of 2% inflation. With the labor market still tight, the Federal Reserve may well raise rates another 25 basis points with the peak in Fed Funds at 5.00% to 5.25%. Fed Funds Futures continue to point to the potential for a pivot into an easing cycle and this has supported the rise in equity prices. We believe the most likely outcome is for the Federal Reserve to pause for a period to access the impact to inflation of the rise in interest rates and shrinking of the balance sheet.  Equity markets will focus on the impact this has had on the economy and the potential for a contraction in corporate profits. Equity valuation levels remain elevated and with the prospects for a decline in profits this sets up for a difficult path for higher equity prices.  The major support continues to be the prospect of a shift to a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Little progress has been made in dealing with the Debt Ceiling which will add a level of uncertainty and volatility to markets. With the war in Ukraine passing the one-year mark, there has been no progress toward a resolution adding to the uncertainty. With many of the sizable legislative packages passed now entering the phase of rule writing, markets will have more clarity on where these funds will flow. This should be one of the bright spots in a challenging economic outlook. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.

1https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Sustainable Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Sustainable Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.  AAP-2304-28

Performance Disclosures

Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2023 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Index Disclosures

The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Markets Review

The U.S. equity market finished higher for the first quarter of the year, as the S&P 500 Index rose 7.50% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2.96% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart by 13.36% during the quarter.

On a sector basis, seven out of eleven sectors within the S&P 500 Index finished higher for the quarter, with Information Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary posting the largest gains. The worst performers were Energy, Health Care and Financials.

Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Although inflation remained well above its historical average of 3.26%, the pace of price increases moderated during the quarter. As such, for the 12-month periods ending in January and February, annualized CPI figures declined from 6.4% to 6.0%, respectively. The pattern of disinflation was partly driven by decreases in the price of fuel, used vehicles and medical care services. The government also reported a deceleration in U.S. economic growth, as GDP increased 2.6% in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s 3.2% increase. Weaker consumer spending and business investment were significant factors in the softer results. However, retail sales in January jumped 3%, and the labor market remained tight, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%.

While some economic data points trended in a positive direction, the market was shocked with the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history. The value of SVB’s bond holdings had plunged amid rapidly increasing interest rates, creating a shortfall as clients (largely composed of tech startups) withdrew their deposits, eventually leading to a run on the bank’s deposits. Just days later, regulators also took control of New York-based Signature Bank. The speed and size of the bank failures sent U.S. bank share prices tumbling. To provide stability, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of an emergency lending facility that would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets (e.g., Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset (instead of the market value). Additionally, First Citizens Bank announced that it had made an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for a whole bank purchase with loss share coverage of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.1

Despite the turmoil in the banking system, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed its course, increasing its benchmark rate by 0.25% in March (its ninth consecutive rate hike) to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, noting that banking events may contribute to a more restrictive credit environment, the Fed tempered its stance that further rate increases are necessary to restore price stability and achieve its 2% inflation target. Rather, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the reliance on incoming data to inform the future path of monetary policy, as conditions may have tightened more than economic indices currently suggest.

On the corporate earnings front, results and guidance were broadly underwhelming, with only 68% of S&P 500 companies exceeding EPS estimates (below the five-year average of 77%) and 67% of companies providing negative EPS guidance (above the five-year average of 59%). Overall, the S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings of 4.9% as inflation and recession remained prevalent topics, with 332 and 148 companies mentioning those words on earnings calls, respectively. Nevertheless, in spite of the weaker-than-expected results, there have also been positive remarks of cost cutting, moderating input price pressures and better supply-chain dynamics.

Performance and Attribution Summary

For the first quarter of 2023, Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite posted a total return of 5.35% net of fees (5.46% gross of fees), underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which recorded a total return of 7.50%.

Performance (%) 1Q231 Year3 Years5 Years7 YearsSince Inception*
Core Equity Composite (gross)5.465.46-11.3116.3311.0712.38
Core Equity Composite (net)5.355.35-11.6815.8510.6111.86
S&P 500 Index7.507.50-7.7318.6011.1811.77
*The Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Source: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index was due to security selection and allocation effects. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Energy detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Information Technology and Health Care as well as an underweight in Energy contributed the most to relative performance.

Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2023

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
CatalentCigna Group
NvidiaNorfolk Southern
MicrosoftChubb
Applied MaterialsDarling Ingredients
AlphabetBio-Techne

Contributors

Catalent

Catalent shares outperformed in the first quarter as rumors surfaced of Danaher expressing interest in acquiring Catalent. At this point no deal has materialized; however, Catalent also appears to be stabilizing their core drug manufacturing businesses. 

Nvidia

Nvidia contributed to outperformance, as the company announced better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings driven by a strong rebound in Gaming and an improving outlook for the Datacenter business due to the acceleration of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) driven Artifical Intelligence (AI) deployment. The company also hosted its Global Technology Conference (GTC) in March where it further highlighted its leading technology being used to develop AI Large Language Models (LLM). The company announced new partnerships with hyperscalers for its AI cloud-based service while also releasing new software and hardware offerings that will support GPU-driven AI growth.  Nvidia continues to see a growing addressable market for its products and services as AI uses become more prevalent.

Detractors

Cigna Group

Cigna shares traded lower in the first quarter, partly on a rotation out of safe-haven health care names in the managed care sector after strong performance in 2022 and partly due to increased scrutiny on the pharmaceutical benefits manager’s (PBMs) business model. These concerns have been raised in the past and Cigna attempts to be transparent with rebates and other facets of the model. We believe shares remain attractively valued. 

Norfolk Southern

Norfolk Southern underperformed in the first quarter of 2023 following the derailment of a train in Ohio in early February. Although there were no fatalities or injuries in the accident, chemical spills and a controlled burn of the contents of some tanker cars raised concern for long-term environmental impact, the associated cost of the cleanup and the increased risk of more stringent government regulations. 

Recent Portfolio Activity

The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.

BuysSells
Expedia GroupPhillips 66
Zoetis

Buys

Expedia Group

Expedia Group, Inc. provides online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, as well as provides real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels and car rental companies. Expedia serves customers worldwide.

We see Expedia benefiting from the growth of booking travel online, both for leisure and in corporate travel.  The company also benefits from rapid growth in alternative accommodations, vacation home rental, through VRBO. The main sources of revenue and profitability are from hotel and vacation home rental. Additionally Expedia has exposure to airline ticket sales and automobile rentals. Post the COVID-19 pandemic, Expedia’s debt has been reduced and share repurchase has resumed and we would expect a dividend to be reinstated.

Zoetis

Zoetis is a global leader in the animal health industry, focused on the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products, and services, biodevices, genetic tests and precision animal health technology. It has a diversified business, commercializing products across eight core species: dogs, cats, horses, cattle, swine, poultry, fish, and sheep within seven major product categories: vaccines, parasiticides, anti-infectives, dermatology, other pharmaceutical products, medicated feed additives and animal health diagnostics. Zoetis boasts approximately 300 product lines sold in more than 100 countries around the world, making it one of the world’s largest animal health businesses. Approximately 53% of the company’s total revenue is generated from the US.

We believe that Zoetis is working to help improve the lives of animals, which has societal benefits in the companion animal arena. Within livestock, healthier animals can provide increased productivity and yield as the growing world population seeks more safe food sources and additional sources of protein.

Sells

Phillips 66

We sold Phillips 66 to reduce our exposure to Energy as we continue to see the odds of a recession increase. A recession will negatively impact overall gasoline and diesel demand which could lead to weaker margins, as refinery utilization rates increase following the winter turnarounds. 

Outlook

The impact of the Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the banking issues of the past month added to the concern of a potential economic recession. With goods inflation largely under control, labor costs will remain the focal point to achieving the stated goal of 2% inflation. With the labor market still tight, the Federal Reserve may well raise rates another 25 basis points with the peak in Fed Funds at 5.00% to 5.25%. Fed Funds Futures continue to point to the potential for a pivot into an easing cycle and this has supported the rise in equity prices. We believe the most likely outcome is for the Federal Reserve to pause for a period to access the impact to inflation of the rise in interest rates and shrinking of the balance sheet. Equity markets will focus on the impact this has had on the economy and the potential for a contraction in corporate profits. Equity valuation levels remain elevated and with the prospects for a decline in profits this sets up for a difficult path for higher equity prices.  The major support continues to be the prospect of a shift to a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Little progress has been made in dealing with the Debt Ceiling which will add a level of uncertainty and volatility to markets. With the war in Ukraine passing the one-year mark, there has been no progress toward a resolution adding to the uncertainty. With many of the sizable legislative packages passed now entering the phase of rule writing, markets will have more clarity on where these funds will flow. This should be one of the bright spots in a challenging economic outlook. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.

1https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2304-30

Performance Disclosures

Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2023 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

The Aristotle Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013 at a predecessor firm. During this time, Mr. Fitzpatrick had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting November 1, 2016 was achieved at Aristotle Atlantic.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Index Disclosures

The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.