Today’s backdrop has many investors cautious as they are looking at slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risk, including tensions in the Middle East. The prevailing narrative suggests that small caps struggle in stagflationary environments, but history tells a more nuanced story. Small caps do not necessarily require strong economic growth to outperform; in fact, they often benefit when expectations are low and dispersion across companies increases. In low-growth periods where GDP is below 2%, small caps have historically delivered 19.2% returns versus 12.4% for large caps, highlighting a meaningful relative advantage.

What matters just as much is the path of inflation. It’s not simply the level of inflation that drives outcomes, but whether it is stabilizing or deteriorating. In uncertain environments like the one we are navigating today, quality becomes a critical differentiator within the small cap universe. Companies with strong balance sheets and durable business models tend to hold up better, while highly levered or higher risk names lag.

If the market environment evolves to resemble a stagflationary or low-growth regime, history suggests small caps may not be the casualty many expect. Instead, with the right selectivity and focus on quality, they could prove to be a source of opportunity as markets reprice uncertainty and move beyond the current narrative.

Small Caps in Various GDP Environments

1925-2025

Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP®), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Jefferies. 1925-Q4 2025. CRSP US Small Cap Index, CRSP US Large Cap Index.

Historical Analysis of Small Caps in Differing Inflationary Environments

Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Jefferies. CRSP US Small Cap Index, CRSP US Mid Cap Index, CRSP US Large Cap Index. Data 1/1/1935-12/31/2025.

When Stagflation Risks Increase, Quality Factors Have Shown the Greatest Resilience

Sources: BofA Global Research; FactSet. Stagflationary periods are defined as incidences of above-trend CPI inflation coupled with below-trend real GDP growth. Data 1/1/1989-12/31/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2606-5

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Small Caps, Big Concentration: What Q1 2026 Told Us About the Russell 2000

Return concentration in the Russell 2000 was heavily skewed toward energy:

  • Energy outperformed the index by nearly 37%, standing out as the clear driver of performance.
  • Materials, the second-best sector, lagged far behind with just +5.2% relative outperformance.
  • Perhaps most notably, the top 50 stocks accounted for 447% of the total index return. A small subset of names did not just lead the market; they effectively defined it.

What does this mean?

  • These dynamics highlight limited breadth in small cap performance during the quarter and reinforce the importance of sector exposure and stock selection for investors.
  • Passive exposure may not have delivered the typical experience investors expect.

Quality Factors Led During 1Q26 Despite a Soft March

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; Russell 2000 Index as of 3/31/26.

Narrow Market Performance in 1Q26

Energy outperformed by almost 37%!

It was the fourth best relative performance by a top sector in any quarter since 1985

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; as of 3/31/26.

Russell 2000 Return Concentration

Top 50 stocks amounted to more than 400% of the Russell 2000 Index 1Q26 total return

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; as of 3/31/2026.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2605-11

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Transaction growth across major card networks and issuers highlights the durability of consumer activity to start 2026.

Management

Major card networks delivered ~10% YoY volume growth in the first quarter.

Reflecting resilient consumer spending despite macro uncertainty.

Growing transaction activity in the first quarter was broad-based across major players, not driven by a single issuer or network, and far outpaced inflation.

The results reinforce a steady consumer backdrop overall, but record credit card debt and rising interest costs are worth watching.

Note: *Excludes Discover transaction which took effect 2Q25. **For Mastercard 1Q26 represents the quarter ended 4/30/26
Source: VISA Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results; Capital One First Quarter 2026 Results; American Express Earnings Conference Call Q1’26; Mastercard Incorporated First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call; Aristotle Capital Management, author calculations.

Disclosures

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2605-54

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2603-122

For more on International Equity, access the latest resources.