Air Date June 11, 2026

Aristotle Pacific’s Jeffrey Klingelhofer, CFA, was live on Schwab Network’s “Market on Close” with Sam Vadas to discuss the key forces shaping today’s inflation outlook, from oil prices and geopolitical developments to labor market and wage trends. He also explores how evolving consumer behavior and corporate pricing decisions could influence employment, profit margins, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

Watch the full interview below.

Jeff Klingelhofer
Managing Director, Portfolio Manager


About Aristotle Pacific
Aristotle Pacific Capital is a Newport Beach, Calif.-based registered investment adviser that actively invests in credit securities on the basis of fundamental credit analysis with the objective of identifying and realizing relative value. The firm manages credit strategies across floating-rate loans, CLOs, multi-sector, high-yield, investment-grade, and short-duration bonds.

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Nvidia’s market cap now exceeds the entire Russell 2000 Index – one company outweighing approximately 2,000 small caps.

Even at the peak of the dot-com bubble, this did not happen. Cisco was the largest company in March 2000, yet it was only about half the size of the Russell 2000.

When one stock outweighs an entire index, it’s less about small caps being irrelevant and more about the market overpaying for certainty and underpricing dispersion.

If you have a small cap allocation today, you’re not chasing the narrative – you’re positioning for what comes next. Historically, extremes in concentration don’t resolve by staying extreme. They resolve through rotation, broadening participation, or re-rating.

NVIDIA is Worth More than the Entire Small Cap Universe

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet as of 3/31/2026.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2606-7

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

The Knicks and Spurs are back in the NBA Finals. Markets, too, are revisiting an old debate.

Different Players, Similar Questions

In 1999, the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs met in the NBA Finals. That same year, investors were captivated by a technology cycle that promised to reshape the economy. Just over a quarter-century later, the Finals matchup has returned. So has a familiar market debate.

To read the full piece, please use the link below. 

Today’s backdrop has many investors cautious as they are looking at slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risk, including tensions in the Middle East. The prevailing narrative suggests that small caps struggle in stagflationary environments, but history tells a more nuanced story. Small caps do not necessarily require strong economic growth to outperform; in fact, they often benefit when expectations are low and dispersion across companies increases. In low-growth periods where GDP is below 2%, small caps have historically delivered 19.2% returns versus 12.4% for large caps, highlighting a meaningful relative advantage.

What matters just as much is the path of inflation. It’s not simply the level of inflation that drives outcomes, but whether it is stabilizing or deteriorating. In uncertain environments like the one we are navigating today, quality becomes a critical differentiator within the small cap universe. Companies with strong balance sheets and durable business models tend to hold up better, while highly levered or higher risk names lag.

If the market environment evolves to resemble a stagflationary or low-growth regime, history suggests small caps may not be the casualty many expect. Instead, with the right selectivity and focus on quality, they could prove to be a source of opportunity as markets reprice uncertainty and move beyond the current narrative.

Small Caps in Various GDP Environments

1925-2025

Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP®), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Jefferies. 1925-Q4 2025. CRSP US Small Cap Index, CRSP US Large Cap Index.

Historical Analysis of Small Caps in Differing Inflationary Environments

Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Jefferies. CRSP US Small Cap Index, CRSP US Mid Cap Index, CRSP US Large Cap Index. Data 1/1/1935-12/31/2025.

When Stagflation Risks Increase, Quality Factors Have Shown the Greatest Resilience

Sources: BofA Global Research; FactSet. Stagflationary periods are defined as incidences of above-trend CPI inflation coupled with below-trend real GDP growth. Data 1/1/1989-12/31/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2606-5

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

The quality profile of the Russell 2000 has quietly deteriorated, and it’s becoming increasingly relevant in today’s higher-for-longer rate environment. A smaller share of companies in the index are profitable, while a growing percentage exhibit very low Altman Z-scores, signaling elevated financial stress. At the same time, Russell 2000 companies face a heavier near term debt maturity burden than their S&P 500 counterparts, increasing exposure to refinancing risk as borrowing costs remain elevated.

This shift means the index is no longer a broad reflection of small cap opportunity, it’s a mix of high quality and structurally fragile companies. In an environment defined by tighter financial conditions and slower growth, that distinction matters. The result is greater dispersion within small caps, where balance sheet strength, earnings durability, and the ability to navigate refinancing cycles increasingly separate winners from laggards.

Small caps still offer compelling opportunities, but success is less about owning the index and more about active management, where careful security selection can help investors avoid refinancing risk and focus on the companies best positioned to withstand a higher cost of capital world.

Quality of Index has Declined

As of March 31, 2026

Source: Aristotle Boston analysis with data from Bloomberg and Russell Investments. Data 7/1994 – 3/2026

The Case for Active SC Management: Refinancing Risk

Small Cap stocks have a relatively larger share of debt coming due in the next 5 years.

As interest rates have increased since much of the debt was issued, refinancing will be more expensive and difficult for non- or low-earning stocks.

Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/2025

The Case for Active SC Management: Refinancing Risk

Has interest expense finally peaked?

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet as of 12/31/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2606-12

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Small Caps, Big Concentration: What Q1 2026 Told Us About the Russell 2000

Return concentration in the Russell 2000 was heavily skewed toward energy:

  • Energy outperformed the index by nearly 37%, standing out as the clear driver of performance.
  • Materials, the second-best sector, lagged far behind with just +5.2% relative outperformance.
  • Perhaps most notably, the top 50 stocks accounted for 447% of the total index return. A small subset of names did not just lead the market; they effectively defined it.

What does this mean?

  • These dynamics highlight limited breadth in small cap performance during the quarter and reinforce the importance of sector exposure and stock selection for investors.
  • Passive exposure may not have delivered the typical experience investors expect.

Quality Factors Led During 1Q26 Despite a Soft March

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; Russell 2000 Index as of 3/31/26.

Narrow Market Performance in 1Q26

Energy outperformed by almost 37%!

It was the fourth best relative performance by a top sector in any quarter since 1985

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; as of 3/31/26.

Russell 2000 Return Concentration

Top 50 stocks amounted to more than 400% of the Russell 2000 Index 1Q26 total return

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet; as of 3/31/2026.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2605-11

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.