Large Cap Growth 1Q 2023
The U.S. equity market finished higher for the first quarter of the year, as the S&P 500 Index rose 7.50% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2.96% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart by 13.36% during the quarter.
Sources: SS&C Advent, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Seven out of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Value Index finished higher for the quarter, with Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary gaining the most. Meanwhile, Health Care, Financials and Energy were the worst-performing sectors.
While some economic data points trended in a positive direction, the market was shocked with the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second-largest bank failure by assets in U.S. history. The value of SVB’s bond holdings had plunged amid rapidly increasing interest rates, creating a shortfall as clients (largely composed of tech startups) withdrew their deposits, eventually leading to a run on the bank’s deposits. Just days later, regulators also took control of New York-based Signature Bank. The speed and size of the bank failures sent U.S. bank share prices tumbling. To provide stability, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of an emergency lending facility that would allow banks to deposit high-quality assets (e.g., Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for a cash advance worth the face value of the asset (instead of the market value). Additionally, First Citizens Bank announced that it had made an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for a whole bank purchase with loss share coverage of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.1
Despite the turmoil in the banking system, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed its course, increasing its benchmark rate by 0.25% in March (its ninth consecutive rate hike) to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, noting that banking events may contribute to a more restrictive credit environment, the Fed tempered its stance that further rate increases are necessary to restore price stability and achieve its 2% inflation target. Rather, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the reliance on incoming data to inform the future path of monetary policy, as conditions may have tightened more than economic indices currently suggest.
On the corporate earnings front, results and guidance were broadly underwhelming, with only 68% of S&P 500 companies exceeding EPS estimates (below the five-year average of 77%) and 67% of companies providing negative EPS guidance (above the five-year average of 59%). Overall, the S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings of 4.9% as inflation and recession remained prevalent topics, with 332 and 148 companies mentioning those words on earnings calls, respectively. Nevertheless, in spite of the weaker-than-expected results, there have also been positive remarks of cost cutting, moderating input price pressures and better supply-chain dynamics a sector basis, nine out of eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth Index finished higher for the quarter, with Utilities, Industrials and Health Care gaining the most. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services posted the largest declines and Information Technology rose the least.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the first quarter of 2023, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of 12.16% net of fees (12.26% gross of fees), underperforming the 14.37% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
|Performance (%)||1Q23||1 Year||3 Years||5 Years||Since Inception*|
|Large Cap Growth Composite (gross)||12.26||-14.76||15.38||12.26||15.01|
|Large Cap Growth Composite (net)||12.16||-15.04||14.95||11.83||14.57|
|Russell 1000 Growth Index||14.37||-10.90||18.58||13.65||16.00|
*The Large Cap Growth Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to security selection and allocation effects. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, as well as an overweight in Health Care, detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Information Technology and Health Care, as well as a lack of exposure to Energy, contributed to relative returns.
Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2023
|Relative Contributors||Relative Detractors|
|ON Semiconductor||Norfolk Southern|
|CrowdStrike Holdings||Home Depot|
|UnitedHealth Group||Darling Ingredients|
Nvidia contributed to outperformance, as the company announced better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings driven by a strong rebound in Gaming and an improving outlook for the Datacenter business due to the acceleration of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) driven Artifical Intelligence (AI) deployment. The company also hosted its Global Technology Conference (GTC) in March where it further highlighted its leading technology being used to develop AI Large Language Models (LLM). The company announced new partnerships with hyperscalers for its AI cloud-based service while also releasing new software and hardware offerings that will support GPU-driven AI growth. Nvidia continues to see a growing addressable market for its products and services as AI uses become more prevalent.
ON Semiconductors contributed to outperformance, as the company’s fourth quarter earnings were slightly better than expected and the company’s outlook supports continued strength in the Silicon Carbide (SiC) market growth for EV customers. The company also announced another new key customer win to supply BMW with SiC for its EV, and this further builds on the company’s long-term supply agreement pipeline. The company continues to reiterate its SiC growth target for 2023 and expects gross margins to continue to improve, as its new SiC production facilities ramp.
Tesla was a negative contributor to performance due to our underweight position relative to Russell 1000 Growth Index, as the company had strong performance in Q1. The strength occurred after the company partially reversed a previously announced price cut for its electric vehicles following a period of strong demand. Tesla also reported better-than-expected results for Q4 2022 during the first quarter.
Norfolk Southern underperformed in the first quarter of 2023 following the derailment of a train in Ohio in early February. Although there were no fatalities or injuries in the accident, chemical spills and a controlled burn of the contents of some tanker cars raised concern for long-term environmental impact, the associated cost of the cleanup and the increased risk of more stringent government regulations.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
|ON Semiconductor||Horizon Therapeutics|
ON Semiconductor supplies analog, standard logic and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The company provides industry leading intelligent sensing and power solutions to help its customers solve the most challenging problems and create cutting edge products for a better future. Its extensive portfolio of sensors, power management, connectivity, custom and SoC, analog, logic, timing and discrete devices helps customers efficiently solve design challenges in advanced electronic systems and products. ON Semiconductor’s devices perform power and signal control, and interface functions appear in a wide range of end-user markets including automotive, communications, computing, consumer, medical, industrial, networking, telecom and aerospace/defense. Most of ON Semiconductor’s sales come from the Asia/Pacific region.
We see ON Semiconductor attractively valued and leveraged to attractive areas of end-market growth over the next few years. The company is gaining both semiconductor content and seeing better pricing tailwinds due to demand exceeding supply and more complex semiconductor content. We see these trends continuing to provide 2023 tailwinds and fully expect strong growth rates in electric vehicle penetration over the next five years.
Enphase Energy designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions in the U.S. and internationally for the solar industry. The company is the world’s leading manufacturer of microinverters that convert solar-generated D.C. energy to A.C. energy usable in homes and buildings. Enphase introduced the world’s first microinverter system in 2008 and has expanded its offerings to include battery storage systems and proprietary technologies that provide energy monitoring and control services for solar energy systems. It sells its products and solutions directly to solar system distributors, large installers and strategic partners.
We see Enphase having a substantial market share that is gained through a premium product offering, superior customer service and the development of a large and diverse network of solar installers and distributors. The company’s products and services address a growing residential solar market. Coupling battery backup systems with existing and newly installed residential solar systems could accelerate the company’s revenue and earnings growth over the next several years, in our view. Additionally, commercial and international expansion offer additional revenue and earnings upside. Enphase also plans to expand manufacturing capacity in the U.S. during 2023 to benefit from tax incentives related to domestic production included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Chart Industries is a leading independent global manufacturer of highly engineered equipment servicing multiple applications in the Energy and Industrial Gas markets. Its unique product portfolio is used in every phase of the liquid gas supply chain, including upfront engineering, service and repair. Being at the forefront of the clean energy transition, Chart is a leading provider of technology, equipment and services related to liquefied natural gas, hydrogen, biogas and CO2 Capture amongst other applications. Chart’s customers are mainly large, multinational producers and distributors of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The company generates about half its sales in North America.
We see Chart Industries as a leading manufacturer of highly engineered cryogenic solutions that are used for the production and storage of industrial gases. With the exposure to energy end markets including liquified natural gas (LNG), compressed natural gas (CNG) and hydrogen, the company has the technology to ship gas from oversupplied markets to markets that do not have access to enough energy resources. Hydrogen is gaining traction as a renewable fuel due to the focus on climate change. The recent acquisition of Howden is complementary to Chart’s existing product and service offerings.
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals develops drugs with a focus on rare disease treatments. Its portfolio consists of several commercial products and multiple clinical and preclinical product candidates for the treatment of various diseases. The company’s Vimizim, Naglazyme and Aldurazyme drugs treat versions of the life-threatening genetic condition mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS), caused by a rare enzyme deficiency that prevents patients from metabolizing certain complex carbohydrates. Another drug, Kuvan, is approved to treat enzyme deficiency phenylketonuria (PKU). Additional medicines include Brineura and Palynziq.
We see BioMarin, anchored by their durable enzyme-based therapies, poised to grow from new indications, primarily Voxzogo, the first-approved treatment for Achondroplasia, and Roctavian, a drug awaiting FDA approval for the treatment of Severe Hemophilia A, with gene therapy and the ability to address a large chronically managed patient population. Additionally, the company has an early pipeline outside of these major indications in rare diseases within the usculoskeletal/metabolic, hematology, cardiovascular and CNS therapeutic focus areas.
Tesla designs, develops, manufactures and markets high-performance, technologically advanced electric cars and solar energy generation and energy storage products. Tesla sells more than five fully electric cars, among others, the Model X and Y SUVs, as well as the Model S sedan and Model 3 sedan. The company has a growing global network of Tesla Superchargers, which are industrial grade, high-speed vehicle chargers, typically placed along well-traveled routes and in and around dense city centers to allow Tesla owners quick and reliable charging. Tesla offers certain advanced driver assist systems under its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options. U.S. customers generate nearly half of Tesla’s sales.
We see Tesla as the leading manufacturer of battery powered electric vehicles (EVs). The company has achieved scaled production of EVs before the other large automobile manufacturers. The company’s technology in battery production and self-driving technology is more mature than competitors’ offerings. EVs are one of the fastest growing categories within automobile manufacturing. The profit margin in the automotive segment is significantly above automotive competitors which provides the company flexibility to price its vehicles more strategically as the competition eventually scales up their EV production. The direct-to-consumer sales model gives the company more control over its relationship with its customers as well as a source of higher profit margin since there is no dealership share of the profits.
We sold Horizon after Amgen announced their intention to acquire Horizon for $116.50 per share. The deal is expected to close in mid-year 2023.
We sold the position in Dynatrace as were concerned about the slowdown in cloud spending due to the optimization of workload costs by businesses. The slowdown became clear in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to continue throughout 2023, as businesses rationalize their cloud migration spending due to macroeconomic headwinds.
The impact of the Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the banking issues of the past month added to the concern of a potential economic recession. With goods inflation largely under control, labor costs will remain the focal point to achieving the stated goal of 2% inflation. With the labor market still tight, the Federal Reserve may well raise rates another 25 basis points with the peak in Fed Funds at 5.00% to 5.25%. Fed Funds Futures continue to point to the potential for a pivot into an easing cycle and this has supported the rise in equity prices. We believe the most likely outcome is for the Federal Reserve to pause for a period to access the impact to inflation of the rise in interest rates and shrinking of the balance sheet. Equity markets will focus on the impact this has had on the economy and the potential for a contraction in corporate profits. Equity valuation levels remain elevated and with the prospects for a decline in profits this sets up for a difficult path for higher equity prices. The major support continues to be the prospect of a shift to a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Little progress has been made in dealing with the Debt Ceiling which will add a level of uncertainty and volatility to markets. With the war in Ukraine passing the one-year mark, there has been no progress toward a resolution adding to the uncertainty. With many of the sizable legislative packages passed now entering the phase of rule writing, markets will have more clarity on where these funds will flow. This should be one of the bright spots in a challenging economic outlook. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
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Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2023 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.