The quality of the Russell 2000 has meaningfully deteriorated with nearly 40% of the index constituents being non-earners and close to 25% are at risk of bankruptcy. With $65 billion in zero interest rate era debt maturing in the coming years, refinancing risk is elevated. History suggests investing in companies that generate positive net income not only supports long-term outperformance but may also help mitigate the refinancing risk embedded in the index.
View our full small caps observations for deeper insight.
Quality of the Index Has Eroded
As of March 31, 2025
Source: Aristotle Boston analysis with data from Bloomberg and Russell Investments. Data from 7/1994 to 3/2025. Annualized Excess Returns above are average annualized excess returns.
The Case for Active SC Management: Refinancing Risk
Small cap stocks have a relatively larger share of debt coming due in the next 5 years.
As interest rates have increased since much of this debt was issued, refinancing will be more expensive and difficult for non- or low-earning stocks.
For more information on the index and refinancing risk click here.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index. It includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
The Altman Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within two years. It uses a combination of five key financial ratios to calculate a single score. The formula takes into account profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency, and activity ratios. An Altman Z-score close to 0 suggests a company might be headed for bankruptcy, while a score closer to 3 suggests a company is in solid financial positioning.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-29
Over the past 15 years we have observed a prolonged large cap cycle, resulting in small caps as a percentage of the Russell 3000 index hitting 20 year lows. The last time large caps outperformed small caps by this wide of a margin was during the dot-com bubble in 1999. If history is any indication and markets are mean reverting, forward returns for small caps should be strong as the asset classes normalize. Explore the potential reversion of small cap stocks to historical norms and the distinctive opportunities this presents.
Small vs. Large Potential Reversion to Historical Norms
As of March 31, 2025
We believe the latest large-cap cycle is growing old, as large caps have outperformed small caps for the better half of the last decade plus. A reversion to the mean positions small caps well relative to large caps moving forward.
Rolling 10-Year Excess Return U.S. Small Cap vs. U.S. Large Cap Stocks (1935 – 3/31/2025)
Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the Russell 1000 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to March 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices. Cycles are defined by peak to trough inflection points in 10-year rolling excess returns. Length in years are rounded to nearest whole number. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Small Cap’s Total Market Cap as a Percentage of the Russell 3000 sits at a 20-Year Low
As of March 31, 2025
Russell 2000 Total Market Cap / Russell 3000 Total Market Cap (%)
9/30/2004 – 3/31/2025
Source: Bloomberg. The ratio represents the total market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index as a percentage of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
Trailing Performance History Suggests We May Be at an Inflection Point
Source: [Left chart]: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Based on the annualized returns of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to December 2024. [Right chart]: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Last Time Large Caps Outperformed Small Caps by this Margin was in 1999
As of March 31, 2025
Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to March 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 93% of the Russell 3000® Index, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 3000® Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 US companies representing approximately 96% of the investable US equity market, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 3000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive, unbiased and stable barometer of the broad market and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-26
Small cap stocks are attractive relative to large cap stocks across most valuation metrics with value being more attractive than growth. A reacceleration of earnings and sales growth should trigger a new small cap cycle. See our full small cap observations for deeper insights.
Small Caps and Value are Historically Cheap Relative to Large Caps and Growth
As of March 31, 2025
Large caps trade at a premium to small caps not seen since 2001.
Relative P/E (LTM) Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000
Source: FactSet. Based on trailing 12-month earnings. 9/30/1999 – 3/31/2025.
Small-Cap Value and Mid-Cap Value Remain Cheap Relative to History and Style Peers
As of March 31, 2025
Small vs large: cheap vs. history on most metrics
Sources: BofA U.S. Equity and Quant Strategy; FactSet. P/E (price-to-earnings) measures exclude negative earnings. Forward P/E is based on consensus next 12 month forecast earnings. EV/FCF excludes negative FCF.
Small Caps and Value are Historically Cheap Relative to Large Caps and Growth
As of March 31, 2025
Small cap Growth is historically expensive vs. Value on four out of six metrics.
Relative premium to the historical average multiple for Russell 2000 Growth vs. Russell 2000 Value
Sources: BofA Global Research; FactSet. Based on historical multiples, 1985-3/31/2025.
Small Cap Earnings and Sales Projected to Strengthen in 2H25
As of March 31, 2025
Sources: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Small Cap is represented by the Russell 2000 Index and Large Cap is represented by the S&P 500 Index.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2000 Value® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index. It includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-25
Despite challenging market conditions, the Russell 2000 index shows remarkable resilience and potential. Explore our small caps observations to gain strategic insights.
Performance was Challenging during 1Q 2025
As of March 31, 2025
1Q25 was among the worst 10% of all Russell 2000 quarters going back to 1979.
Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet.
Historical Performance Following a Russell 2000 Quarterly Decline of More Than 9%
As of March 31, 2025
Sources: Furey Research Partners, FactSet. Based on returns for the Russell 2000 Index from March 1979 to March 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Key Is to Stay Invested
As of March 31, 2025
Source: Furey Research Partners. Rolling forward two-year returns calculated daily. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2506-15
The volatility observed throughout 2024, persisted into the first quarter of 2025. The Russell 2500 Index declined -7.50% during the quarter, following a strong 2024 with the index returning 11.99%. After a moderately positive start to the quarter, February and March were a more challenging market environment due to uncertainty surrounding the precise parameters and implementation of the new administration’s policies, geopolitical tensions and a higher for longer rate environment. Continued economic growth, a stable labor market and firmer inflation data kept the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the more hawkish course they took in December. Chairman Powell held rates steady at the March FOMC meeting and indicated the Fed will maintain a more measured approach going forward, updating their economic projections and forecasts to two rate cuts in 2025.
Stylistically, value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts during the quarter as the Russell 2500 Value Index returned -5.83% compared to the -10.80% return of the Russell 2500 Growth index. This is a reversal from last year where growth significantly outperformed value.
From a factor performance perspective, the quarter saw a change in market preference to higher-quality companies, favoring dividend-paying, defensive stocks. This change in sentiment was due in part to level interest rates, moderating US economic activity, and an increase in recession risk.
At the sector level, defensive sectors outperformed cyclical sectors, with Utilities (+8.37%), a sector often perceived as a bond proxy, being the only sector in the Russell 2500 Index to post a positive return during the quarter. The worst performing sectors were Information Technology (-16.57%), Consumer Discretionary (-11.77%), Industrials (-10.16%), and Health Care (-8.38%) while Utilities (+8.37%), Materials (-4.92%), Communications (-4.57%), Financials (-3.42%), Energy (-1.92%), Real Estate (-1.67%) and Consumer Staples (-1.02%) performed best.
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Performance Review
For the first quarter, the Aristotle Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite generated a total return of -6.40% net of fees (-6.22% gross of fees), outperforming the -7.50% total return of the Russell 2500 Index. Outperformance was driven by security selection in the Health Care, Materials and Information Technology sectors coupled with an underweight allocation to Consumer Discretionary. An underweight to the Utilities sector, along with security selection in Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Energy detracted from performance.
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Alamos Gold
MACOM Technology Solutions
Huron Consulting Group
Wolverine World Wide
Merit Medical Systems
Ciena Corporation
Chemed Corporation
Chart Industries
AerCap Holdings
ASGN Incorporated
CONTRIBUTORS
Alamos Gold (AGI-CA), engages in the exploration, development, mining and extraction of precious metals. We maintain our investment as we believe in the company’s lower geopolitical risk profile, solid production growth plan from 600k oz to 1M oz per year over the next five years, and strong operational track record.
Huron Consulting Group (HURN), a specialty consulting company that provides financial, operational, and digital consulting services to health care, education and commercial clients, appreciated after delivering strong results highlighted by continued momentum within the company’s health care and commercial segments, more than offsetting the education segment. We maintain our investment, as we believe the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on a demand backdrop aided by financial and operational pressures in its largest end-markets, along with secular tailwinds supporting digital transformation, analytics and cloud consulting.quarter of 2025.
DETRACTORS
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI), a designer and manufacturer of high-performance semiconductor products, declined along with the broader semiconductor industry during the quarter. We maintain our position, as we believe the company’s meaningful exposure to growing demand from Data Center and 5G end market applications along with the integration of recent acquisitions should drive additional shareholder value in periods to come.
Wolverine World Wide (WWW), engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of branded casual, active lifestyle, work, outdoor sport, athletic, uniform, footwear, and apparel. The company met expectations but guided lower for FY 2025, punishing the stock price. We maintain our position as we expect improved top-line growth and further net leverage reduction to support the Company’s long-term financial objectives leading to increased shareholder value.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys/Acquisitions
Sells/Liquidations
Agree Realty Corporation
Barnes Group
Old National Bancorp
Designer Brands
Valvoline
Nasdaq
Summit Materials
BUYS/ACQUISITIONS
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC), is a real estate investment trust that owns, manages and develops primarily neighborhood community shopping centers and single tenant properties leased to major retail tenants such as Sherwin-Williams, Wal-Mart and TJX Companies. We believe the company’s high-quality portfolio, recession resistant retail categories and strong balance sheet coupled with management’s proactive tenant management and acquisition pipeline will benefit the company on a go-forward basis.
Old National Bancorp (ONB), is a regional bank serving clients primarily in the Midwest and Southeastern U.S. We believe the company’s geographic location, strong balance sheet, increased loan growth and repricing of fixed-rate loans to higher rates will benefit NIMs on a go-forward basis.
Valvoline (VVV), is a pure-play auto quick lube and maintenance service provider with over 2,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. The company provides quick and convenient stay-in-your-car automotive preventative maintenance through its full-service oil changes from skilled technicians in less than 15minutes. We believe the company will benefit from increased market share gains, driven by both corporate and franchise expansion, growing its scale, accelerating growth and increasing its moat.
SELLS/LIQUIDATIONS
Barnes Group (B), is a globally recognized industrial and aerospace manufacturer and service provider that stands out for its highly engineered products, differentiated industrial technologies, and innovative solutions. The company was acquired and taken private by Apollo Funds.
Designer Brands (DBI), is a North American company which engages in the design, production, and retail of footwear and accessory brands. We sold the position due to what we believed were deteriorating corporate fundamentals.
Nasdaq (NDAQ), is a holding company, which engages in trading, clearing, exchange technology, regulatory, securities listing, information, and public and private company services. We sold the position as the stock had reached our valuation target.
Summit Materials (SUM), is a North American supplier of aggregates, cement, and ready-mix concrete for the construction industry. The company was acquired by Quikrete Holdings, Inc.
Outlook
We remain optimistic about the long-term potential for the SMID-cap segment of the U.S. market. Valuations remain compelling relative to large caps, with the Russell 2500 Index trading near the lower end of its historical range. Potential tailwinds, including deregulation, lower corporate tax rates, increased M&A activity, continued reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, and infrastructure-related spending, could provide additional support for SMID-cap stocks. There may be some short-term volatility as the new administration’s policies are implemented and absorbed by markets. We also remain mindful of risks such as inflation reaccelerating, increased geopolitical tensions, and potential U.S. economic weakness.
Positioning
Our current positioning is a function of our bottom-up security selection process and our ability to identify what we view as attractive investment candidates, regardless of economic sector definitions. Overweights in Information Technology and Industrials are mostly a function of our underlying company specific views rather than any top-down predictions for each sector. Conversely, we continue to be underweight in Consumer Discretionary, as we have been unable to identify what we consider to be compelling long-term opportunities that fit our discipline given the rising risk profiles of many retail businesses and a potential deceleration in goods spending following a period of strength. We also underweight in Financials as those are the companies in that sector who meet our rigorous requirements on a fundamental basis. Given our focus on long-term business fundamentals, patient investment approach and low portfolio turnover, the strategy’s sector positioning generally does not change significantly from quarter to quarter. However, we may take advantage of periods of volatility by adding selectively to certain companies when appropriate.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Boston’s Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Aristotle Boston makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
As of December 31, 2014, there were no non-fee-paying accounts in the Composite.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs.
These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments.
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2504-20
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments
Composite returns for periods ended March 31, 2025, are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
*The Aristotle Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite has an inception date of January 1, 2008, at a predecessor firm. During this time, Jack McPherson and Dave Adams had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting January 1, 2015, was achieved at Aristotle Boston.
As of December 31, 2014, there were no non-fee-paying accounts in the Composite. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Please see important disclosures enclosed within this document.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 2500 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2500 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small/mid cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2500 Value® Index measures the performance of the small/mid cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The volatility (beta) of the composite may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
(All MSCI index returns are shown net and in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.)
Markets Review
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle International Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Global equity markets started the year on a modestly negative note, with the MSCI ACWI Index returning ‑1.32% for the first quarter. In contrast, global fixed income gained ground, as the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index rose 2.64%. Value stocks outpaced growth over the quarter, with the MSCI ACWI Value Index outperforming the MSCI ACWI Growth Index by 11.59%.
Outside the U.S., international equities made strong gains versus their American counterparts. The MSCI EAFE Index rose 6.86% during the first quarter, while the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index climbed 5.23%. Within the MSCI EAFE Index, Europe & Middle East and the U.K. were the strongest performers, while Asia increased the least. On a sector basis, nine out of the eleven sectors within the MSCI EAFE Index posted positive returns, with Energy, Financials and Utilities generating the largest gains. Conversely, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate performed the worst.
Inflation trends remained broadly stable across developed markets. The U.S., U.K., and EU all reported annual inflation below 3%, giving central banks greater flexibility. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England continued to ease monetary policy in response to softer growth signals. In Asia, China’s economy recorded 5% GDP growth in 2024, showing tentative signs of recovery, while the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the third time since ending its negative interest rate policy in March 2024 on expectations of sustained 2% inflation.
Trade policy re-emerged as a market concern during the quarter. In his first months back in office, President Trump announced a new wave of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, with additional warnings directed at the EU and other trading partners over what were termed “imbalanced trade arrangements.” The targeted industries—autos, steel and aluminum—reflected a focus on reshoring and industrial policy. While the long-term impact is still unfolding, the renewed trade uncertainty prompted central banks to lower growth forecasts and adopt a more cautious tone on future rate moves.
In Europe, Germany’s economy remained under pressure after contracting for a second consecutive year in 2024—the first two-year contraction since 2003. In response, Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz proposed sweeping fiscal reforms, including an overhaul of the constitutional debt brake, a €500 billion infrastructure fund and increased defense spending. While potentially supportive of medium-term growth, these initiatives have raised concerns around inflation and fiscal discipline, adding complexity to the European Central Bank’s policy path.
On the geopolitical front, a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in January unraveled by March amid disagreements over hostage releases. In Ukraine, a military stalemate in the east opened the door for ceasefire negotiations brokered by the U.S., with discussions reportedly tied to a potential minerals agreement to offset financial aid.
Finally, the artificial intelligence (AI) theme continued to influence market narratives. Chinese startup DeepSeek gained international attention after launching a low-cost rival to leading generative AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google. The move not only intensified competition but raised new questions about the durability and configuration of global AI supply chains. Notably, DeepSeek’s approach—achieving comparable performance at a fraction of the cost—has challenged assumptions around the infrastructure demands of generative AI, potentially reducing the need for GPUs, energy-intensive data centers and the broader hardware stack the market had expected would underpin AI growth.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the first quarter of 2025, Aristotle Capital’s International Equity Composite posted a total return of 3.62% gross of fees (3.50% net of fees), underperforming the MSCI EAFE Index, which returned 6.86%, and the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index, which returned 5.23%. Please refer to the table below for detailed performance.
Performance (%)
1Q25
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception*
International Equity Composite (gross)
3.62
6.09
4.97
12.10
6.34
5.80
International Equity Composite (net)
3.50
5.60
4.49
11.57
5.84
5.30
MSCI EAFE Index (net)
6.86
4.88
6.05
11.77
5.40
3.18
MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (net)
5.23
6.09
4.48
10.92
4.98
2.80
*The inception date for the International Equity Composite is January 1, 2008. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle International Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sector attribution shows how much of a portfolio’s overall return is directly attributable to stock selection and asset allocation decisions within the portfolio, highlighting which sectors contributed or detracted to the total return. Attribution includes the reinvestment of income.
From a sector perspective, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the MSCI EAFE Index can be attributed to both security selection and allocation effects. Security selection in Financials, Energy and Industrials detracted the most from the portfolio’s relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Health Care, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology contributed to relative returns.
Regionally, both allocation effects and security selection were responsible for the portfolio’s underperformance. Exposure to Canada and security selection in the U.K. detracted the most from relative performance, while security selection and an underweight in Asia contributed.
Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2025
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Munich Reinsurance
Cameco
Nemetschek
Brookfield
Sony
Accenture
Safran
Ashtead Group
Roche
Diageo
Cameco, one of the world’s largest uranium producers, was a primary detractor during the quarter. Shares of the Canada-based company declined following President Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports to the U.S., where Cameco is a major uranium supplier. However, we believe these tariff concerns are overstated given the inelastic nature of uranium demand and the lack of substitutes. Any incremental costs would be absorbed by utilities under existing contract structures. While the company’s stock price may have followed the decline in uranium spot prices during the period, Cameco’s business is largely insulated from short-term price swings due to its extensive use of long-term contracts rather than spot-market sales. Moreover, the company’s tier-one assets in politically stable jurisdictions, operational track record and ability to flex production—particularly at its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines—further strengthen its competitive advantage. We believe Cameco remains exceptionally well-positioned to benefit as governments around the world increasingly turn to nuclear power as a clean, secure and scalable source of energy.
Accenture, the global IT services and consulting firm, was one of the largest detractors during the period. The company reported revenue at the top end of its guided range, supported by solid booking, particularly in large-scale transformational projects from major corporate clients. Despite these results, shares declined as investor sentiment was impacted by continued client caution amid heightened global uncertainty, including concerns around tariffs and consumer sentiment, as well as the U.S. administration’s initiative to streamline federal operations, which could result in canceled or delayed government contracts. We believe Accenture is well-positioned to support the federal government’s efficiency goals through its expertise and proven track record in delivering innovative, cost-effective solutions. Accenture has also continued to see traction in emerging areas such as generative AI, securing $1.4 billion in new bookings and generating approximately $600 million in related revenue during the quarter. Short-term fluctuations in consulting demand are not unusual, and we remain confident that Accenture’s global scale and deep expertise make it well-positioned to continue to provide solutions and deepen its partnerships with many of the world’s largest companies as they continue to implement increasingly sophisticated technologies.
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, was a leading contributor for the quarter. The company delivered strong results despite absorbing €1.2 billion in claims from January’s California wildfires, a testament to the reinsurer’s prudent risk management. Demonstrating confidence in its ongoing profitability and robust capital position, Munich Re also raised its dividend by more than 30% and announced an expanded €2 billion share buyback program. Favorable market pricing and disciplined underwriting have continued to support profitability, even amid elevated volatility in capital markets and global catastrophe losses. Additionally, Munich Re’s experienced leadership team has placed an unusual emphasis on innovation for a reinsurer of its size, investing meaningfully in R&D and technology. For example, the company has identified, launched or already implemented over 300 AI use cases that aim to increase efficiency and enhance its competitive edge. We expect these initiatives to further support Munich Re’s continued market share gains across specialty lines, including cybersecurity, and in rapidly growing Asian markets where insurance penetration remains relatively low.
Sony, the global leader in video games, image sensors, music and movies, was a top contributor for the period. The company delivered strong quarterly results, driven primarily by its gaming and music businesses, and announced a new executive leadership structure. In gaming, Sony reported a record-high 129 million monthly active users, a 20% year-over-year increase in PlayStation Plus revenue and an expanding user base, as 40% of new PS5 console buyers were new to the platform. The Music segment also continued to benefit from global streaming tailwinds, delivering double-digit profit growth. In a significant leadership transition, Sony announced that, effective April 1, 2025, Hiroki Totoki, currently COO and CFO, would succeed Kenichiro Yoshida as CEO. Our original investment in Sony was grounded in the strategic transformation led by Yoshida-san, where Totoki-san was an instrumental partner in driving Sony’s pivot away from commoditized businesses whilespearheading investments in content IP and semiconductors. Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunity for Sony to capitalize on its unique position as both a content creator and platform owner. The company’s ability to integrate gaming, music, anime and film and leverage IP across platforms (e.g., Crunchyroll and its recent partnership with Kadokawa) should position it well for long-term value creation.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys
Sells
Fast Retailing
Magna International
During the quarter, we sold our position in Magna International and invested in Fast Retailing.
We first invested in Magna International, a Canada-based global auto parts, systems and assembly company, in the fourth quarter of 2019. The company, in our opinion, has a unique capability of supplying parts for an increasingly electrified and autonomous fleet of vehicles. This includes Magna’s specialty in lightweighting vehicles—a necessity for heavy electric cars—as well as its years of investment in self-driving technologies. In addition, with leading market share positions in many of its core markets and products, we believe Magna remains well-positioned to benefit as content-per-vehicle increases and automotive parts and systems become more complex. Though the company continues to meet our Quality and Valuation criteria, we have diminished confidence in its Catalysts. As such, we exited our position in Magna to fund the purchase of Fast Retailing, which we view as a more optimal investment.
Fast Retailing Co., Ltd
Founded in 1984 and headquartered in Japan, Fast Retailing is one of the world’s largest apparel companies. Best known for its flagship brand UNIQLO, the company has over 3,500 stores worldwide, generating approximately 40% of sales in Japan, 20% in China and the remainder across the U.S., Europe and other Asian markets. UNIQLO (originally “Unique Clothing Warehouse”) accounts for roughly 85% of sales, with the remaining 15% coming from brands such as GU, Theory and others.
Fast Retailing is often grouped with “fast fashion” competitors such as Zara (owned by Inditex) and H&M. However, Fast Retailing’s strategy is fundamentally different. While fast fashion brands focus on rapidly turning over the latest trends—often at the expense of quality—Fast Retailing emphasizes timeless, high-quality apparel at accessible prices. Its LifeWear philosophy prioritizes functionality, comfort and durability, with innovations such as HeatTech for warmth and AIRism for breathability making its clothes essential wardrobe staples rather than disposable fashion. This focus on innovation, quality and affordability has helped Fast Retailing build a globally recognized brand with a history of profitable expansion in and outside Japan.
While this is our first time investing in Fast Retailing, we have followed the company for over a decade, having previously invested in Toray Industries, which produces many of the proprietary fabrics that underpin UNIQLO’s appeal. Given its long-term growth potential and operational strengths, we believe now is the right time to invest.
High-Quality Business
Some of the quality characteristics we have identified for Fast Retailing include:
Economies of scale achieved with a strategy that focuses on functionality, quality and value (rather than rapidly changing fashion trends) contribute to above peer profitability;
Globally recognized brand with a history of profitable expansion within Japan and internationally;
Technology-driven innovation in materials, inventory, logistics and supply chain management; and
Long-tenured management team with unusually high insider ownership.
Attractive Valuation
Based on our estimates, shares of the company are attractively valued. We believe continued overseas expansion, as well as other catalysts (see below), will likely lead to higher normalized margins and FREE cash flow than currently appreciated by the market.
Catalysts
Catalysts we have identified for Fast Retailing, which we believe will cause its stock price to appreciate over our three- to five-year investment horizon, include:
Continued overseas expansion should drive higher normalized revenue and profitability;
Operational improvements in China, including better inventory management and an optimized store footprint, are expected to enhance margins; and
Improved performance at GU brand in Asia, as well as expansion into the U.S.
Conclusion
As we progress through the early stages of 2025, the convergence of persistent macroeconomic forces with the renewed presence of trade conflicts has added to the uncertainty facing equity markets. While there certainly was no shortage of headlines during the quarter, we believe trying to time the market or to predict the impact of these developments is a futile task. Instead, our focus remains on evaluating whether these events are truly analyzable, materially differentiated and meaningful to long-term investors—or simply noise that fuels short-term speculation.
At Aristotle Capital, we do not aim to capture short-term gains by “trading” portfolios based on the news of the day. Rather, we remain committed to identifying companies we believe exhibit high-quality characteristics and the resilience to perform across full market cycles. In our experience, breaking news is often fleeting and not quite as impactful as many market participants believe it to be. On the contrary, during periods of economic uncertainty high-quality companies are oftentimes able to make decisions that result in market share gains, thus, potentially, increasing their longer-term intrinsic worth. As such, we will continue to study the microeconomic decisions of individual businesses rather than attempt to predict macroeconomic events or outcomes.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle International Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Capital’s International Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2503-130
Performance Disclosures
Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2025 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or product. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the United States and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed market countries and 24 emerging markets countries. With approximately 2,600 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. The MSCI ACWI Growth Index captures large and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across 23 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI ACWI Value Index captures large and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 23 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the United States) and 24 emerging markets countries. With approximately 2,000 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the United States. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 24 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Brent Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market. With approximately 200 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from 27 local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the U.K. market. With nearly 100 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the United Kingdom. The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 developed markets countries in Europe. With approximately 400 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European developed markets equity universe. These indexes have been selected as the benchmarks and are used for comparison purposes only. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than the respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indexes.
The U.S. equity market began 2025 with a modest decline, with the S&P 500 Index falling 4.27% during the first quarter. In contrast, bonds provided a measure of stability, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 2.78%.
On a sector basis, negative performance was led by four of the eleven sectors within the S&P 500 Index in the first quarter of 2025. The weakest sectors were Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology. The best-performing sectors were Energy and Health Care.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
U.S. economic data reported during the quarter presented a mixed picture. Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of 2.4%, while inflation remained stable. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the labor market remained resilient, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4%. However, consumer strength showed signs of strain, as retail sales slowed from levels seen late last year, potentially impacted by adverse weather and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Trade policy was a major source of uncertainty during the quarter. President Trump announced a series of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, citing concerns over illegal immigration, drug trafficking and intellectual property theft. Targeted industries included autos, steel, aluminum and energy, particularly Venezuelan oil. While tariffs initially raised concerns, the administration’s selective enforcement and flexible implementation approach helped ease market anxiety. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The central bank acknowledged potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and moderated expectations for economic growth in 2025.
Despite broader economic headwinds, corporate earnings remained strong. S&P 500 companies reported impressive 17.8% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest rate since 2021. However, tariff-related uncertainties loomed large, with more than 220 companies referencing tariffs in their earnings calls and nearly 15% issuing negative earnings guidance.
On the domestic front, a government shutdown was averted, as President Trump signed a six-month funding bill. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported the measure, believing that a shutdown would have allowed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to terminate government services at a faster rate.
Geopolitically, the U.S. continued its mediation efforts in the Middle East and Ukraine. While a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas in January, tensions flared again in March over disputes regarding hostage releases in Gaza. In Ukraine, U.S. aid was briefly paused following a contentious White House meeting between presidents Trump and Zelensky. Financial and intelligence support resumed after Ukraine signaled it was open to a ceasefire and agreed to revisit terms of a potential mineral deal, aiming to offset the costs of U.S. assistance.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the first quarter of 2025, Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite posted a total return of -5.90% gross of fees (-5.99% net of fees), underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which recorded a total return of -4.27%.
Performance (%)
1Q25
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception*
Core Equity Composite (gross)
-5.90
6.76
7.59
17.19
12.58
13.41
Core Equity Composite (net)
-5.99
6.32
7.15
16.72
12.10
12.90
S&P 500 Index
-4.27
8.25
9.06
18.59
12.10
12.92
*The Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sector attribution shows how much of a portfolio’s overall return is directly attributable to stock selection and asset allocation decisions within the portfolio, highlighting which sectors contributed or detracted to the total return. Attribution includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the first quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index was due to a mix of security selection and allocation effects. Security selection in Information Technology and Industrials detracted the most from relative performance; conversely, security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Utilities contributed the most to relative performance.
Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2025
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Intercontinental Exchange
Broadcom
Guardant Health
ServiceNow
O’Reilly Automotive
Bio-Techne
Antero Resources
Oracle
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Chart Industries
Detractors
Boradcom
Broadcom detracted from performance in the first quarter. The release of the DeepSeek AI model and analysis of technological specifications stunned investors. This raised concerns about a rapid decline in AI model development costs and the effect that will have on capex spending for new infrastructure and advanced semiconductors used for accelerated computing needs. The entire AI infrastructure investment space saw significant declines in the final week of January following the DeepSeek announcements and continued to see further weakness in March as concerns around AI capex cuts increased.
ServiceNow
ServiceNow detracted from performance in the first quarter, as the company reported guidance during the fourth quarter earnings call that was below investor expectations. Investors have also begun to incorporate tougher macroeconomic headwinds and negative impacts from the DOGE government spending cuts into their weaker outlook for software revenue growth in 2025.
Contributors
Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange was a relative contributor in the first quarter following a solid fourth quarter earnings report highlighted by continued strong trading activity in energy and interest rate products, additional efficiency gains, and positive commentary about the Mortgage Technology business. In addition, optimism improved following the company’s annual ICE Experience conference, which highlighted new AI solutions in its Mortgage Technology product suite. The company’s AI efforts in Mortgage Technology are accelerating progress toward improving and digitizing workflows and positioning it to gain an increasing share of the long-term market opportunity in the mortgage industry.
Guardant Health
Guardant Health was a relative contributor in the first quarter following several positive announcements and solid fourth quarter earnings. Guardant announced Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) pricing from Medicare on its Guardant Shield test and a contract with the VA hospital system to cover patients over 45 years of age. This follows strong momentum and positive full-year revenue guidance.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
Buys
Sells
Analog Devices
Buys
Analog Devices
Analog Devices is a global semiconductor leader dedicated to solving customers’ most complex engineering challenges. The company delivers innovations that connect technology to human breakthroughs and play a critical role at the intersection of the physical and digital worlds by providing the building blocks to sense, measure, interpret, connect and power. Analog designs, manufactures, tests and markets a broad portfolio of solutions. These solutions include integrated circuits, software and subsystems that leverage high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing technologies. Its comprehensive product portfolio, deep domain expertise and advanced manufacturing span high-performance precision and high-speed mixed-signal, power management and processing technologies, including data converters, amplifiers, power management, radio frequency, integrated circuits, edge processors and other sensors. The company’s customers include original equipment manufacturers and customers that build electronic subsystems for integration into larger systems.
We see the company’s analog products providing exposure to high-growth trends, including automotive electrification and driver assistance systems, factory intelligence and automation, the Intelligent Edge, Internet of Things device proliferation and sustainable energy. We expect the company to return excess free cash flow, benefiting shareholders.
Sells
There were no sales in the first quarter of 2025.
Outlook
The equity markets in the first quarter declined as investors digested the potential impact of wide-ranging tariffs, along with concerns of a peak in the capital spending cycle around AI. Interest rates declined in the quarter, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down about 35 basis points. The prospects of tariffs pushing prices higher could put the Fed on hold in a period when the economy starts to weaken. Economic data was mostly in line with expectations, reflecting a moderately growing economy. Although equity market valuations have pulled back, they are still in elevated territory with growing concerns of a slowdown in corporate profits. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2504-17
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub
Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2025 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
The Aristotle Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013 at a predecessor firm. During this time, Mr. Fitzpatrick had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting November 1, 2016 was achieved at Aristotle Atlantic.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Value Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
The U.S. equity market began 2025 with a modest decline, with the S&P 500 Index falling 4.27% during the first quarter. In contrast, bonds provided a measure of stability, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 2.78%.
From a style perspective, the Russell 1000 Value Index outperformed its growth counterpart by 12.11%. On a sector basis, eight out of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Value Index posted positive returns. The best-performing sectors were Energy, Communication Services and Health Care, while Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were the worst.
U.S. economic data reported during the quarter presented a mixed picture. Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of 2.4%, while inflation remained stable. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the labor market remained resilient, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4%. However, consumer strength showed signs of strain, as retail sales slowed from levels seen late last year, potentially impacted by adverse weather and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Trade policy was a major source of uncertainty during the quarter. President Trump announced a series of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, citing concerns over illegal immigration, drug trafficking and intellectual property theft. Targeted industries included autos, steel, aluminum and energy, particularly Venezuelan oil. While tariffs initially raised concerns, the administration’s selective enforcement and flexible implementation approach helped ease market anxiety. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The central bank acknowledged potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and moderated expectations for economic growth in 2025.
Despite broader economic headwinds, corporate earnings remained strong. S&P 500 companies reported impressive 17.8% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest rate since 2021. However, tariff-related uncertainties loomed large, with more than 220 companies referencing tariffs in their earnings calls and nearly 15% issuing negative earnings guidance.
On the domestic front, a government shutdown was averted, as President Trump signed a six-month funding bill. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported the measure, believing that a shutdown would have allowed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to terminate government services at a faster rate.
Geopolitically, the U.S. continued its mediation efforts in the Middle East and Ukraine. While a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas in January, tensions flared again in March over disputes regarding hostage releases in Gaza. In Ukraine, U.S. aid was briefly paused following a contentious White House meeting between presidents Trump and Zelensky. Financial and intelligence support resumed after Ukraine signaled it was open to a ceasefire and agreed to revisit terms of a potential mineral deal, aiming to offset the costs of U.S. assistance.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the first quarter of 2025, Aristotle Capital’s Value Equity Composite posted a total return of 0.78% gross of fees (0.73% net of fees), underperforming the 2.14% return of the Russell 1000 Value Index and outperforming the -4.27% return of the S&P 500 Index. Please refer to the table for detailed performance.
Performance (%)
1Q25
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Value Equity Composite (gross)
0.78
1.32
6.57
16.46
11.18
Value Equity Composite (net)
0.73
1.08
6.31
16.17
10.86
Russell 1000 Value Index
2.14
7.18
6.64
16.15
8.79
S&P 500 Index
-4.27
8.25
9.06
18.59
12.50
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Value Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income.
The portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Value Index in the first quarter can be attributed to both allocation effects and security selection. Security selection in Financials, an overweight in Information Technology and an underweight in Health Care detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Consumer Discretionary, Utilities and Energy contributed. (Relative weights are the result of bottom-up security selection.)
Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2025
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Sony
Blackstone
Amgen
Microsoft
American International Group
Ameriprise Financial
American Water Works
Lennar
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
Adobe
Adobe, the leading provider of content creation and publishing software, was a notable detractor during the quarter. This came despite the company reporting record revenue of over $5.7 billion in the first quarter—a 10% year-over-year increase, with double-digit increases across both its Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. The disconnect between strong fundamentals and share price weakness reflects ongoing market concerns around intensifying competitive threats from generative AI and lower-cost design platforms. Market sentiment has remained cautious around the perceived disruption risk posed by new AI-driven entrants, including OpenAI’s Sora for video generation and platforms like Canva, which cater to the broader prosumer and small and medium-sized business segment. However, we continue to view these as largely non-overlapping with Adobe’s core base of creative professionals, enterprises and agencies—audiences that demand precision, control and integration within larger workflows. Canva, while expanding its feature set, remains limited in its enterprise readiness and depth. Sora, meanwhile, remains early-stage and experimental, with limited commercial application at this point. Crucially, Adobe is not standing still. The company is actively embedding generative AI across its ecosystem through Firefly, which is commercially safe (i.e., free of copyrighted sources to train its models) and integrated natively into Creative Cloud applications like Photoshop and Illustrator. Firefly has shown strong early traction, generating $125 million in annualized recurring revenue, with management expecting that figure to double by year-end. While modest in size relative to Adobe’s total revenue, Firefly’s monetization strategy is still in its early innings, with further potential through upselling, usage-based pricing and expanded use cases. Beyond monetization, AI integration enhances Adobe’s long-term competitive moat through product functionality, stronger customer engagement and increased switching costs. Adobe’s unique access to proprietary data, content workflows and creative content allows it to fine-tune models that serve the high-end needs of professionals—capabilities that generic AI models lack. Strategic partnerships with Microsoft (e.g., Firefly in Microsoft 365 Copilot) and ongoing momentum in Adobe Express further extend its reach into new user segments. Ultimately, we believe Adobe has a durable competitive advantage, underpinned by a large installed base, subscription-led business model, strong brand equity and a long track record of innovation. While short-term concerns over AI disruption have weighed on the stock price, we believe Adobe is well-positioned to harness AI as a driver of value rather than being displaced by it.
Sony, the global leader in video games, image sensors, music and movies, was the top contributor for the period. The company delivered strong quarterly results, driven primarily by its gaming and music businesses, and announced a new executive leadership structure. In gaming, Sony reported a record-high 129 million monthly active users, a 20% year-over-year increase in PlayStation Plus revenue and an expanding user base, as 40% of new PS5 console buyers were new to the platform. The Music segment also continued to benefit from global streaming tailwinds, delivering double-digit profit growth. In a significant leadership transition, Sony announced that, effective April 1, 2025, Hiroki Totoki, currently COO and CFO, would succeed Kenichiro Yoshida as CEO. Our original investment in Sony was grounded in the strategic transformation led by Yoshida-san, where Totoki-san was an instrumental partner in driving Sony’s pivot away from commoditized businesses whilespearheading investments in content IP and semiconductors. Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunity for Sony to capitalize on its unique position as both a content creator and platform owner. The company’s ability to integrate gaming, music, anime and film and leverage IP across platforms (e.g., Crunchyroll and its recent partnership with Kadokawa) should position it well for long-term value creation.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys
Sells
Air Products and Chemicals
Honeywell
Alphabet
Michelin
Millrose Properties
During the quarter, we sold our positions in Honeywell, Michelin and Millrose Properties and invested in Air Products and Chemicals and Alphabet.
We first invested in Honeywell, the multinational industrial conglomerate, in the third quarter of 2021. Throughout our ownership period, the company made meaningful progress in its transformation into a modern, innovation-driven enterprise, with a focus on energy efficiency, productivity and connectivity—commonly referred to as the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). Supported by a disciplined capital allocation strategy, Honeywell continued to reshape its product portfolio, emphasizing higher-margin, technology-enabled offerings, such as aerospace software and industrial automation—catalysts we had previously identified. As one of the last remaining diversified U.S. conglomerates, and following years of pressure from activist investors, Honeywell announced in February its decision to split into three independent, publicly listed companies: Honeywell Automation, Honeywell Aerospace and Advanced Materials. We believe this move has the potential to enhance operational focus and unlock shareholder value, in line with similar breakups by other large conglomerates. However, the process is expected to take time and is not anticipated to be completed until the second half of 2026. Given this long runway and the limited near-term visibility, we elected to exit our stake in Honeywell and will continue to monitor the business as further details emerge. We used the proceeds from the sale to fund what we believe is a more attractive investment in Alphabet.
Our team initially invested in Michelin, one of the world’s largest tire manufacturers, in the first quarter of 2021. In our view, the company benefits from a strong competitive position driven by its global scale, brand strength and continued leadership in cutting-edge tire technology. We believe Michelin is well-positioned to enhance profitability through an ongoing shift in its product mix toward higher-margin specialty and large-diameter tires, along with improved SG&A efficiency supported by process optimization initiatives. While Michelin continues to meet all of our core investment criteria, we chose to exit our position in order to fund what we believe is a more compelling opportunity in Air Products and Chemicals.
We received shares of Millrose Properties after it was spun off from Lennar on February 7. Millrose is a new publicly traded company focused on land banking and development. As part of the spinoff, Lennar transferred $6 billion worth of land inventory to Millrose. We believe this spinoff will allow Lennar to be a more capital efficient homebuilder, as less land inventory should lead to stronger FREE cash flow generation and better returns on invested capital. As such, we decided to sell our shares of Millrose and continue with our investment in Lennar’s core homebuilding operations, which we view as a more optimal investment.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Founded in 1940 and with headquarters in Pennsylvania, Air Products and Chemicals is a leading global supplier of industrial gases, including oxygen, nitrogen, helium, hydrogen and others. These essential gases serve critical roles across a wide range of industries, such as refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, manufacturing, healthcare, and food manufacturing and packaging. Air Products is the leading global supplier of hydrogen, with a robust distribution network across North America.
Roughly 50% of the company’s revenue is generated through onsite delivery. This method usually entails 15- to 20-year contracts where Air Products builds a facility at the customer’s site or nearby (or delivers the gases through pipeline systems). These long-term contracts tend to include pass-through and take-or-pay provisions, which provide stability and predictability of cash flows. The company’s merchant gases (roughly 35% of revenue) are delivered in bulk by tanker in either liquid or gas form, usually under five-year contracts, providing a steady but more variable revenue stream. Smaller quantities can also be delivered to customers, usually packaged in cylinders. (This business represents less than 15% of revenue.)
Over the last several years, Air Products has pursued opportunities in clean hydrogen, including the construction of two megaprojects in Saudi Arabia (NEOM) and Louisiana. Unlike its traditional model, these projects were started without offtake agreements, a shift that raised concerns. Amid delays and rising costs, activist investor Mantle Ridge took a stake in the company, advocating for a more disciplined approach to capital allocation and succession planning. In response, Eduardo Menezes joined as CEO from Linde, where he led the company’s EMEA operations. Mr. Menezes quickly refocused the company by divesting non-core assets and exiting three projects outside its industrial gases and hydrogen expertise. We view these changes positively, as they enhance strategic focus and align the company with its core strengths.
High-Quality Business
Some of the quality characteristics we have identified for Air Products include:
Attractive oligopoly industry with high barriers to entry and high switching costs;
Global scale, network of production facilities and distribution infrastructure, as well as engineering expertise;
Mission-critical products that represent a small fraction of a client’s costs. As such, clients are willing to pay a premium and sign long-term contracts to ensure uninterrupted operations, leading to consistent FREE cash flow generation over time;
Favorable business mix relative to peers. Higher proportion of onsite production, which can be more profitable and predictable than merchant and packaged gases; and
History of steady shareholder returns as demonstrated by 43 years of consecutive dividend growth.
Attractive Valuation
While normalizing cash earnings power is always a focus at Aristotle Capital, it is especially important when valuing a capital-intensive business like Air Products. The company is currently in a heavy investment period, with large projects underway. To arrive at an estimate of intrinsic value, in a normal environment, we believe capital expenditures will moderate to just 18% of sales. Moreover, we estimate a modest return of 12% on all projects fully contracted and under construction. Under these key assumptions and others, we purchased shares of Air Products at an attractive discount to our estimate of intrinsic value.
Compelling Catalysts
Refocused strategy and portfolio optimization. Recent divestitures of non-core businesses, including the sale of its LNG process technology, allow management to focus on industrial gases and clean hydrogen, reinforcing the company’s core strengths;
New and experienced leadership. New CEO Eduardo Menezes brings deep industry expertise from competitor Linde, where he led the EMEA practice and was responsible for operations in more than 40 countries. His leadership seeks to refocus the company on higher-return projects with clearer paths to operational success; and
Megaprojects nearing completion. Completion of the green/blue hydrogen megaprojects (NEOM and Louisiana) should significantly enhance earnings and FREE cash flow generation in the years ahead amid increased demand driven by decarbonization polices in Europe and Asia (Japan and Korea).
Alphabet, Inc.
Headquartered in Mountain View, California and founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Alphabet is one of the world’s most dominant and innovative technology companies. Best known as the parent company of Google, Alphabet generates most of its revenue from digital advertising, particularly search. Google currently holds an estimated 87% market share in U.S. search and nearly 90% globally, underpinning a highly profitable ad business that accounts for roughly 75% of Alphabet’s total revenue.
While Google was founded in 1998 and became public in 2004, Alphabet was created in 2015 to provide greater transparency and operational independence across its varied business lines. Beyond its core, the company has increasingly diversified into accelerating products, including Google Cloud and YouTube’s suite of subscription services (YouTube Premium, YouTube TV and YouTube Music). Today, Google Services (Search, YouTube, Chrome, Android and the Play Store) makes up ~87% of total revenue, while Google Cloud represents ~13%. Alphabet also invests in longer-term innovation through its Other Bets segment, which includes autonomous driving (Waymo), life sciences (Verily) and advanced AI research (DeepMind).
High-Quality Business
Some of the quality characteristics we have identified for Alphabet include:
Unrivaled scale in global search and digital advertising, protected by powerful network effects and vast proprietary data;
An integrated ecosystem—across Search, YouTube, Android, Chrome and Gmail—that supports user retention and ad targeting efficiency;
Category leadership in digital media, with YouTube generating over $45 billion in revenue in 2024 and expanding rapidly through ad-supported and subscription models;
Emerging strength in cloud computing, with Google Cloud now profitable and scaling meaningfully; and
A culture of innovation, supported by its Other Bets incubator, which allows Alphabet to invest in moonshot ideas while maintaining financial discipline.
Attractive Valuation
We believe shares of Alphabet are significantly undervalued at less than 12x our estimate of normalized earnings. The company continues to scale high-margin businesses like Google Cloud and YouTube’s subscription offerings while maintaining robust FREE cash flow generation from its dominant advertising segment.
Compelling Catalysts
Catalysts we have identified for Alphabet, which we believe will cause its stock price to appreciate over our three- to five-year investment horizon, include:
Sustained leadership in search and digital advertising, reinforced by Google’s unmatched first-party data and adtech platform;
Improving profitability, margin expansion and market share gains for Google Cloud as it effectively competes at scale with AWS and Microsoft Azure; and
Continued growth in YouTube subscription revenues as YouTube TV—which is on track to become the largest U.S. pay-TV provider by 2026—captures share from traditional cable providers and premium, ad-free content attracts a broader audience.
Potential Future Catalyst: Alphabet’s deep expertise and resources in AI, particularly through the Gemini model family (the company’s flagship large language model), could enhance monetization across Ads, Search and Cloud. Though this is not explicitly included in our valuation estimates, we view the possibility as a “free option.”
Conclusion
As we progress through the early stages of 2025, the convergence of persistent macroeconomic forces with the renewed presence of trade conflicts has added to the uncertainty facing equity markets. While there certainly was no shortage of headlines during the quarter, we believe trying to time the market or to predict the impact of these developments is a futile task. Instead, our focus remains on evaluating whether these events are truly analyzable, materially differentiated and meaningful to long-term investors—or simply noise that fuels short-term speculation.
At Aristotle Capital, we do not aim to capture short-term gains by “trading” portfolios based on the news of the day. Rather, we remain committed to identifying companies we believe exhibit high-quality characteristics and the resilience to perform across full market cycles. In our experience, breaking news is often fleeting and not quite as impactful as many market participants believe it to be. On the contrary, during periods of economic uncertainty high-quality companies are oftentimes able to make decisions that result in market share gains, thus, potentially, increasing their longer-term intrinsic worth. As such, we will continue to study the microeconomic decisions of individual businesses rather than attempt to predict macroeconomic events or outcomes.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Value Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Capital’s Value Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2503-129
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Russell Investments, Standard & Poor’s
Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2025 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or product. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. The Aristotle Value Equity strategy has an inception date of November 1, 2010; however, the strategy initially began at Mr. Gleicher’s predecessor firm in October 1997. A supplemental performance track record from January 1, 2001 through October 31, 2010 is provided above. The returns are based on two separate accounts and performance results are based on custodian data. During this time, Mr. Gleicher had primary responsibility for managing the two accounts, one account starting in November 2000 and the other December 2000.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000 Value® Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is designed to be the size-neutral version of the S&P 500. It includes the same constituents as the cap-weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is allocated the same weight at each quarterly rebalance. The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indexes. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indexes.
The subscription ecosystem represents a transformative shift in how businesses engage with customers and generate revenue, moving from one-time transactional-based models to longer-term subscription-based relationships. This emerging business model delivers consistent customer value over extended periods, providing businesses with predictable revenue streams, deeper customer insights, and enhanced scalability opportunities. As the ecosystem continues to grow, subscription-based revenues are projected to encompass nearly $1 trillion in spending by the end of 2028, driven by a range of business models such as SaaS, streaming media, e-commerce and consumer products. With the ability to collect and analyze customer data, companies can tailor product or service offerings, predict customer behavior and optimize marketing strategies, ultimately improving customer satisfaction and reducing churn. Despite challenges from consumers and regulators, the subscription ecosystem presents attractive long-term investment opportunities, driven by enhanced revenue generation, scalability and enduring customer loyalty.
To read the full thought piece, please use the link below.
The U.S. equity market ended the year on a strong note, with the S&P 500 Index rising 2.41% during the period. In contrast, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined, falling 3.06% for the quarter.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
On a sector basis, gains were made from six of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth Index, led by Consumer Discretionary and Energy. The worst-performing sectors were Real Estate and Materials.
The U.S. economy continued to demonstrate resilience, with real GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.1%, according to the BEA’s most recent report. Increases in consumer spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending drove the economic expansion. Retail sales rose 3.8% year-over-year in November, supported by a 2.7% increase in disposable personal income for the most recent quarter.
The labor market remained tight but showed signs of softening, as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in November. Inflation remained relatively stable, rising modestly to an annual rate of 2.7%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented two rate cuts during the quarter, setting the federal funds target rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of finding a balance—reducing policy restraint too rapidly could hinder progress on inflation, while acting too slowly could weaken economic activity and the labor market. Still, he indicated that both the economy and monetary policy are on solid footing.
Corporate earnings also showed strength, as S&P 500 companies reported 5.8% earnings growth, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive results. A majority of companies exceeded EPS expectations, with only 61 companies issuing negative EPS guidance—the lowest figure since the fourth quarter of 2021. Looking ahead to 2025, consensus estimates project earnings growth of 14.8% for the calendar year, signaling optimism among analysts.
On the political front, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th president of the United States, becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. The Republican Party also won the Senate and kept control of the House of Representatives, though with narrow majorities.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the fourth quarter of 2024, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of 5.05% gross of fees (5.03% net of fees), underperforming the 7.07% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
Performance (%)
4Q24
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
Since Inception*
Focus Growth Composite (gross)
5.05
29.69
5.90
15.56
14.89
Focus Growth Composite (net)
5.03
29.57
5.79
15.45
14.65
Russell 1000 Growth Index
7.07
33.36
10.47
18.96
17.83
*The Focus Growth Composite has an inception date of March 1, 2018. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Sources: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the fourth quarter, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth index was due to a combination of allocation effects and security selection. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology detracted the most from relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Health Care and Communication Services contributed.
Contributors and Detractors for 4Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Expedia
UnitedHealth
Eli Lilly
Trane Technologies
Visa
Prologis
ServiceNow
Bio-Techne
Netflix
S&P Global
Detractors
UnitedHealth
UnitedHealth Group detracted from performance in the fourth quarter following the tragic shooting of its insurance division CEO and increased focus on health insurance industry practices. A bipartisan bill was introduced that could force companies that own pharmacy benefit managers to divest their pharmacy operations, which would impact United’s Optum unit.
Trane Technologies
Trane Technologies detracted from performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company reported better than expected revenue and earnings growth at the end of October. The stock declined in December despite two investor conferences early in the month where the company reiterated expectations that current strong trends in commercial HVAC will continue into 2025, the service business is continuing to experience low double-digit growth, and the residential business is expected to improve from a lull in 2024. Higher interest rates have been a drag on industrial stock performance generally in December. Strength in the US dollar in 2025 will impact large cap companies like Trane, which have international exposure.
Contributors
Expedia
Expedia contributed to performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. In early November, the company reported better-than-expected EBITDA and EPS for the third quarter. Full-year guidance for 2024 was increased. The vacation rental business, Vrbo, returned to modest growth after a few quarters of decline. The balance sheet is close to target leverage ratio. There is a share repurchase authorization for approximately 13% of outstanding shares.
Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly contributed to performance in the fourth quarter. While shares underperformed, our underweight position versus the benchmark resulted in a positive contribution to relative returns. Lilly shares were weak following an uncharacteristic third quarter earnings miss driven by softer-than-expected sales of its blockbuster diabetes and obesity drugs. The company blamed this partly on wholesaler destocking. Lilly reinforced its view that end demand for the drugs remains strong.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
Buys
Sells
Eli Lilly
DexCom
Buys
Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly is a leading pharmaceutical company that develops diabetes, oncology, immunology and neuroscience medicines. The company generates over half of its revenue in the U.S. from its leading drugs Trulicity, Verzenio and Taltz. The company operates in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products.
Eli Lilly has a deep pipeline in treatment areas focused on metabolic disorders, oncology, immunology and central nervous system disorders. Currently, there are two phase-three assets: orforglipron, an oral GLP-1, and retatrutide, a triple incretin agonist, which could possibly expand upon the potential success of Mounjaro. We believe that Mounjaro has the potential to commercialize beyond Type 2 diabetes and obesity, potentially in the areas of heart disease, sleep apnea, fatty liver disease and chronic kidney disease. We believe the premium valuation is supported by this outsized growth profile.
Sells
Dexcom
We sold Dexcom after the surprisingly weak second quarter earnings report and only a modest recovery in the third quarter. The U.S. sales trends remain weak, and we believe that it could take a while for Dexcom to regain the premium multiple it has historically enjoyed. Dexcom is working to fix the durable medical equipment (DME) sales channel, and this could take time. The recently announced Stelo product for non-diabetic users could add an additional level of variability to quarterly earnings reports as well.
Outlook
The equity markets in the fourth quarter moved higher as investors anticipated a market benefit from a full sweep by Republicans in the November election. Interest rates for the quarter were little changed but did move sharply intraquarter due to a shift in the Fed away from a more accommodative policy. Expectations for 2025 include a couple of further rate reductions by the Fed and earnings increasing over 10% for the year. The markets will track closely the new administration’s stance on certain policies, along with the pace and level of reductions in regulations. Tariffs will be a focal point, as any action could add to concerns for higher inflation. Valuation levels remain elevated, and equity price appreciation will largely be dependent on earnings growth for the year. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2501-42
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM
Composite returns for all periods ended December 31, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.