Markets Review
U.S. equity markets reached new all-time highs in the fourth quarter of 2025. The S&P 500 Index rose 2.66%, while fixed income markets also finished higher, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up 1.10% for the quarter.

Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Within the Russell 1000 Growth Index, four out of the eleven sectors posted positive returns. The best-performing sectors were Health Care, Communication Services and Financials, whereas Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials were the weakest segments.
The U.S. economy continued to demonstrate resilience. Data released during the period showed that real GDP surged at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter—the fastest quarterly growth in two years—driven primarily by robust consumer spending, with additional contributions from rising exports and increased government outlays. Despite this strength, consumer confidence deteriorated toward year-end; economists projected a moderation in spending, and concerns about the labor market persisted. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November (a four-year high), though this level remains low by historical standards and is still consistent with an economy operating near full employment. Meanwhile, inflation moderated—the Consumer Price Index was up just 2.7% year-over-year in November, reaching its lowest level since July. Economists cautioned that recent unemployment and inflation figures were likely skewed by technical factors related to the 43-day government shutdown, which disrupted data reporting. This shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—forced approximately 1.4 million federal employees to go without pay and even led to temporary layoffs at some agencies before Congress passed a continuing resolution to reopen on November 12.
Given the mixed economic signals and uncertainty around the data, the Federal Reserve took a cautious stance. The Fed implemented two 0.25% interest rate cuts during the quarter, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach, acknowledging risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. He noted the need to carefully assess incoming information, highlighting that policy would remain cautious and measured going into 2026.
Trade relations between the U.S. and China remained a key focus for markets. Early in the fourth quarter, tensions flared with tariff escalations and export controls. (China had dramatically expanded export controls on rare earth minerals, and the U.S. threatened 100% tariffs in retaliation.) Ultimately, President Trump and President Xi met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea and reached a one-year trade truce.
Corporate earnings remained robust. S&P 500 companies reported earnings growth of 13.6%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. Of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 Index, Information Technology recorded the strongest earnings growth of 29%. Artificial intelligence continued to be a major theme—more than 300 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” on their earnings calls during the fall. This enthusiasm helped propel mega-cap tech stocks higher and drive the market’s gains. However, as the quarter progressed, scrutiny increased around AI-related revenue circularity (companies buying AI services from each other to boost sales), the massive scale of AI-related capital spending, and the durability of longer-term returns on investment.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of 1.58% gross of fees (1.56% net of fees), outperforming the 1.12% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
| Performance (%) | QTD | YTD | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | Since Inception* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focus Growth Composite (gross) | 1.58 | 19.01 | 19.01 | 28.42 | 11.58 | 15.41 |
| Focus Growth Composite (net) | 1.56 | 18.90 | 18.90 | 28.30 | 11.47 | 15.19 |
| Russell 1000 Growth Index | 1.12 | 18.56 | 18.56 | 31.15 | 15.32 | 17.93 |

Sources: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sector attribution shows how much of a portfolio’s overall return is directly attributable to stock selection and asset allocation decisions within the portfolio, highlighting which sectors contributed or detracted to the total return. Attribution includes the reinvestment of income. Attribution is presented gross of fees and does not include the deduction of all fees and expenses that a client or investor has paid or would have paid. Please refer to the gross and net composite returns included within to understand the overall impact of fees. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the fourth quarter, the portfolio’s outperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to allocation effects. Security selection and an overweight in Health Care contributed the most to relative returns. Conversely, security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology detracted the most.
Contributors and Detractors for 4Q 2025
| Relative Contributors | Relative Detractors |
|---|---|
| Guardant Health | Oracle |
| KLA Corporation | Netflix |
| Alphabet | Advanced Micro Devices |
| S&P Global | Amazon |
| Nvidia | Home Depot |
Contributors
Guardant Health
Guardant contributed to performance in the fourth quarter after better-than-expected third-quarter earnings results driven by volume growth and news of an acquisition of a competitor. General market sentiment in the industry has been improving throughout the year as business momentum grows.
KLA Corporation
KLA contributed to performance in the fourth quarter as leading-edge logic and memory customers accelerated capital spending to support advanced-node transitions. The company is benefiting from increased adoption of advanced packaging and EUV-related inspection, where KLAC maintains a technology leadership position, and investors continued to increase estimates for semiconductor capital equipment spending growth in 2026 and 2027 from prior consensus.
Detractors
Oracle
Oracle detracted from performance in the fourth quarter as investors focused on the OpenAI backlog concentration risk and the significant amount of debt required to fund the company’s datacenter commitments over the next 3-4 years. Negative concerns about overinvestment and funding needs for AI infrastructure were key debates in the quarter and Oracle remains more leveraged to OpenAI than its peers with an approximately ~55% backlog exposure.
Netflix
Netflix was a relative detractor in the fourth quarter following a weaker-than-expected third quarter earnings report and uncertainty surrounding the company’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), announced in early December. While the quarter delivered revenue growth in line with consensus expectations, earnings disappointed due to a largely unexpected charge related to a Brazilian tax matter. Shares were further pressured by concerns that the proposed WBD acquisition could face meaningful regulatory hurdles and that pursuing a transaction of this scale represents a departure from Netflix’s historical growth strategy, potentially signaling intensifying competitive pressures in the streaming landscape.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
| Buys | Sells |
|---|---|
| Advanced Micro Devices | Linde |
| DexCom | Synopsys |
| Snowflake | UnitedHealth Group |
Buys
Advanced Micro Devices
Advanced Micro Devices is a global leader in high-performance and adaptive computing, offering a broad portfolio of products and solutions including CPUs, GPUs, APUs, SoCs, FPGAs, and software stacks—that power data centers, cloud computing, client devices, gaming platforms, and embedded systems. Through its four business segments—Data Center, Client, Gaming, and Embedded, the company delivers innovative, differentiated technologies that accelerate computing performance for a wide range of industries, driving advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and next-generation connectivity.
We believe Advanced Micro Devices is well-positioned for long-term growth, driven by secular trends in AI and cloud computing, massive expansion of its addressable market, and strong momentum in both AI accelerators and server CPUs. With ambitious revenue and profitability targets, validated partnerships, and a maturing AI software ecosystem, the company stands to benefit from accelerating enterprise and cloud adoption, robust demand for high-performance computing, and ongoing gains in client PC and gaming markets. Its comprehensive product roadmap and strategic execution suggest significant upside and resilience as AI-driven workloads proliferate across industries. We believe a slight premium to Advanced Micro Devices shares are justified as they are seeing a multi-year acceleration in revenue and earnings from AI hyperscalers and other areas of the AI infrastructure buildout.
DexCom
DexCom is a leading medical device company specializing in the design and development of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for people with diabetes. Founded in 1999, DexCom has pioneered innovative technology such as the implantable sensor and external receiver, empowering individuals to track and manage their glucose levels more effectively. Its key products, including the Dexcom G7 CGM system and Stelo Glucose Biosensor, serve a wide range of users from those with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes to adults with prediabetes, and are marketed primarily to health care professionals in the U.S. and select international markets.
We see DexCom as representing a compelling investment opportunity due to its leadership in the rapidly expanding CGM market, supported by strong reimbursement trends, growing patient coverage, and ongoing product innovation such as the transition to the G7 system and the upcoming 15-day sensor. With low penetration rates among both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes patients and significant untapped markets in the U.S. and internationally, DexCom is well-positioned for sustained growth. The company’s successful launch of Stelo for non-diabetics, robust new patient growth, clean balance sheet, and guidance for double-digit organic revenue and earnings growth further reinforce its attractive outlook for investors. DexCom trades at a price-to-forward earnings per share multiple that, while higher than the overall market, is lower than the company’s historical average. Furthermore, we believe this premium valuation is justified by their large and expanding total addressable market and their strong growth potential.
Snowflake
Snowflake is a leading cloud-based data platform that empowers organizations to consolidate, manage, and analyze their data securely and efficiently. Through its AI Data Cloud, Snowflake enables customers to eliminate data silos, apply AI and analytics, build data-driven applications, and share data across organizations, all while leveraging a flexible, consumption-based pricing model. With a scalable architecture spanning compute, storage, and cloud services, Snowflake supports diverse industry-specific solutions and serves a global customer base, including many of the world’s largest enterprises.
Snowflake stands out as a leading data cloud platform, capitalizing on the shift of enterprise analytics to the cloud and serving a vast addressable market. Its cloud-neutral, multi-cloud approach and deepened partnerships, especially with Microsoft Azure, drive strong market adoption and insulate growth. The company’s consumption-based pricing model supports impressive retention and expansion, while also providing the potential for upsell traction among an expanding roster of large enterprise clients. With rapid growth in generative AI and new workloads, Snowflake is capturing substantial AI-related revenue and customer interest. We believe its robust financial profile, featuring strong margins and a clear path to profitable growth at scale, positions Snowflake as a compelling long-term investment opportunity. It trades at a premium valuation compared to the broader group of infrastructure peers, but we view this as justified by the multi-year outlook and opportunity for revenue growth and margin expansion.
Sells
Linde
We sold the position in Linde following a longer-than-expected trend of negative base volumes for the company due to soft industrial activity in Europe. The current high exposure to North American industrial markets does create increased risks if the U.S. economy enters a prolonged slowdown.
Synopsys
We sold Synopsys in the portfolio following the disappointing recent quarterly earnings, which highlighted a lower revenue outlook for the business due to significant weakness in the IP segment. We expect the business to take a number of quarters to realign resources and business objectives and see more attractive growth opportunities in the semiconductor space.
UnitedHealth Group
We sold UnitedHeath Group as the company lowered guidance on several occasions last year and they have seen increased utilization and acuity across many of their insured business lines resulting in a higher-than-expected medical cost ratio and thus lowered earnings. The CEO was replaced by the former CEO and the CFO was recently replaced as well. The shares have bounced back considerably, rising over 50% from the early August lows. We believe it could take several years for UnitedHealth Groups’ earnings to return to prior year levels. The stock is now trading at a premium multiple, despite solid evidence of a recovery in earnings.
Outlook
The equity markets in the fourth quarter rose modestly with all but two sectors posting positive returns. Interest rates were close to flat in December and have been in a tight range since the summer. Investors started to question the ability to fund the large commitments associated with the buildout of AI data centers which resulted in a change in market leadership. Equity valuations remain elevated and continue to be supported by the prospects for lower interest rates and higher corporate profits. The economic data continues to point toward a moderately growing economy, a softening job market and moderate but sticky inflation. A broadening out of economic activity beyond just AI focused capital should help push corporate profit growth over 10% for 2026. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. While Large-capitalization companies may have more stable prices than smaller, less established companies, they are still subject to equity securities risk. In addition, large-capitalization equity security prices may not rise as much as prices of equity securities of small-capitalization companies. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
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Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM
Composite returns for all periods ended December 31, 2025 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

























