Markets Review

The U.S. equity market began 2025 with a modest decline, with the S&P 500 Index falling 4.27% during the first quarter. In contrast, bonds provided a measure of stability, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 2.78%.

On a sector basis, negative performance was led by four of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth Index in the first quarter of 2025. The weakest sectors were Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology. The best-performing sectors were Energy and Real Estate.

Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

U.S. economic data reported during the quarter presented a mixed picture. Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of 2.4%, while inflation remained stable. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the labor market remained resilient, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4%. However, consumer strength showed signs of strain, as retail sales slowed from levels seen late last year, potentially impacted by adverse weather and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Trade policy was a major source of uncertainty during the quarter. President Trump announced a series of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, citing concerns over illegal immigration, drug trafficking and intellectual property theft. Targeted industries included autos, steel, aluminum and energy, particularly Venezuelan oil. While tariffs initially raised concerns, the administration’s selective enforcement and flexible implementation approach helped ease market anxiety. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The central bank acknowledged potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and moderated expectations for economic growth in 2025.

Despite broader economic headwinds, corporate earnings remained strong. S&P 500 companies reported impressive 17.8% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest rate since 2021. However, tariff-related uncertainties loomed large, with more than 220 companies referencing tariffs in their earnings calls and nearly 15% issuing negative earnings guidance.

On the domestic front, a government shutdown was averted, as President Trump signed a six-month funding bill. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported the measure, believing that a shutdown would have allowed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to terminate government services at a faster rate.

Geopolitically, the U.S. continued its mediation efforts in the Middle East and Ukraine. While a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas in January, tensions flared again in March over disputes regarding hostage releases in Gaza. In Ukraine, U.S. aid was briefly paused following a contentious White House meeting between presidents Trump and Zelensky. Financial and intelligence support resumed after Ukraine signaled it was open to a ceasefire and agreed to revisit terms of a potential mineral deal, aiming to offset the costs of U.S. assistance.

Performance and Attribution Summary

For the first quarter of 2025, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of -9.55% gross of fees    (-9.68% net of fees), outperforming the -9.97% return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

Performance (%) 1Q251 Year3 Years5 YearsSince Inception*
Large Cap Growth Composite (gross)-9.555.896.4816.8215.95
Large Cap Growth Composite (net)-9.685.396.0116.3215.47
Russell 1000 Growth Index-9.977.7610.1020.0917.48

*The Large Cap Growth Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document

Sources: FactSet
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sector attribution shows how much of a portfolio’s overall return is directly attributable to stock selection and asset allocation decisions within the portfolio, highlighting which sectors contributed or detracted to the total return. Attribution includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

During the first quarter, the portfolio’s outperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was led by security selection. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary and Financials contributed the most to relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Information Technology and Industrials detracted.

Contributors and Detractors for 1Q 2025

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
TeslaServiceNow
VisaBio-Techne
O’Reilly AutomotiveEli Lilly
Guardant HealthDatadog
Adaptive BiotechnologiesNvidia

Contributors

Tesla

The underweight in Tesla contributed to performance in the first quarter of 2025. Tesla’s automobile sales declined in the quarter, in part due to factory changeovers that were required for updates to the company’s best-selling vehicle, the Model Y. This resulted in slower sales volume in the quarter. Competition from China’s BYD is causing market share losses for Tesla in several non-U.S. markets. The CEO’s position as an advisor to President Trump has damaged Tesla’s brand image among a cohort of traditional electric vehicle buyers.

Visa

Visa was a relative contributor in the first quarter, driven by strong fourth quarter earnings supported by robust holiday-season consumer spending and sustained growth in payment volumes, trends that continued into January. The company also indicated optimism regarding potential benefits from a more favorable regulatory environment under the new presidential administration. Additionally, two of the company’s fastest-growing segments, New Flows and Value-Added Services, continued to achieve above-average growth, capitalizing on substantial and expanding market opportunities.

Detractors

ServiceNow

ServiceNow detracted from performance in the first quarter, as the company reported guidance during the fourth quarter earnings call that was below investor expectations. Investors have also begun to incorporate tougher macroeconomic headwinds and negative impacts from the DOGE government spending cuts into their weaker outlook for software revenue growth in 2025.

Bio-Techne

Bio-Techne detracted from performance in the first quarter on fears around National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding concerns. The Trump administration announced caps on administrative costs for NIH-funded research projects, and this has resulted in fears of a slowdown in the academic and government segment. Bio-Techne has recently stated that its view is, worst case, a possible 50 basis point headwind to growth. Bio-Techne has shown positive momentum following a strong fiscal second quarter earnings report that included organic revenue growth of 9%.

Recent Portfolio Activity

The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.

BuysSells
OracleDatadog
CowdStrikeAmphenol

Buys

Oracle

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company’s products and services include enterprise applications and infrastructure offerings that are delivered worldwide through a variety of flexible and interoperable IT deployment models. The company operates in three segments: Cloud and License, Hardware and Services.

We believe Oracle’s cloud infrastructure product, OCI 2.0, will continue to demonstrate strong revenue growth over several quarters. Additionally, we see the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) computing needs as being a differentiated growth driver for Oracle. We believe that Oracle will continue to drive positive outcomes for the Cerner business through a better margin structure, as well as top-line sales synergies.

CrowdStrike

CrowdStrike provides cybersecurity products and services that offer endpoint protection and threat intelligence solutions, enabling customers to prevent damage from targeted attacks, detect advanced malware and search all endpoints. The company’s open cloud architecture enables it and third-party partners to rapidly innovate, build and deploy new cloud modules that can provide customers with enhanced functionality across a myriad of use cases.

We see the cloud cybersecurity market as positioned to experience strong growth over the next few years, driven by continued migration from on-premises to cloud-based architecture. We believe CrowdStrike can benefit from this trend due to its early-mover advantage, multiple product offerings and native integrations with leading cloud platforms. The increasing threats from state-sanctioned cybercriminals using high-performance computing and AI necessitate higher spending on advanced cybersecurity products. The total addressable market (TAM) is projected to grow significantly over the next four calendar years. Additionally, CrowdStrike’s cloud-native architecture and unified platform approach provide competitive advantages, resulting in high customer retention and widespread adoption of multiple modules.

Sells

Datadog

We sold the position in Datadog following the company’s most recent quarterly results. We remain concerned about the loss of a key customer(s) in the AI development space and the impact that could have on Datadog’s growth rate. While the company is executing on its core business, we see a rising risk of a slowing top-line growth rate, which we believe would result in valuation compression and a negative impact on the stock performance.

Amphenol

We sold Amphenol, as we see earnings growth opportunities in other technology names. Competitive concerns have subsided in the near term but still exist. We have chosen to exit the position.er to be better growth prospects.

Outlook

The equity markets in the first quarter declined as investors digested the potential impact of wide-ranging tariffs, along with concerns of a peak in the capital spending cycle around AI. Interest rates declined in the quarter, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down about 35 basis points. The prospects of tariffs pushing prices higher could put the Fed on hold in a period when the economy starts to weaken. Economic data was mostly in line with expectations, reflecting a moderately growing economy. Although equity market valuations have pulled back, they are still in elevated territory with growing concerns of a slowdown in corporate profits. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.

The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2504-22

Performance Disclosure

Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM

Composite returns for all periods ended March 31, 2025 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses

Index Disclosure

The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

ARISTOTLE CAPITAL BOSTON, LLC

Markets Review

The volatility observed throughout 2024 persisted into the first quarter of 2025. The Russell 2000 Index approached correction territory with a loss of -9.48% for the quarter, following a solid 2024 with the index returning 11.54%. After a moderately positive start to the quarter, February and March were a more challenging market environment due to uncertainty surrounding the precise parameters and implementation of the new administration’s policies, geopolitical tensions and a higher for longer rate environment. Continued economic growth, a stable labor market and firmer inflation data kept the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the more hawkish course they took in December. Chairman Powell held rates steady at the March FOMC meeting and indicated the Fed will maintain a more measured approach going forward, updating their economic projections and forecasts to two rate cuts in 2025.

Stylistically, value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts during the quarter as the Russell 2000 Value Index returned -7.74% compared to the -11.12% return of the Russell 2000 Growth index. This is a reversal from last year where growth significantly outperformed value.

From a factor performance perspective, the quarter saw a change in market preference to higher-quality companies, favoring dividend-paying, defensive stocks. This change in sentiment was due in part to level interest rates, moderating US economic activity, and an increase in recession risk.

At the sector level, defensive sectors outperformed cyclical sectors, with Utilities (+5.28%), a sector often perceived as a bond proxy, being the only sector in the Russell 2000 Index to post a positive return during the quarter. The worst performing sectors were Information Technology (-18.39%), Consumer Discretionary (-14.91%), Energy (-12.95%), Communications (-12.51%) and Industrials (-11.03%) while Utilities (+5.28%), Health Care (-8.29%), Materials (-6.96%), Financials (-4.35%), Real Estate (-3.28%) and Consumer Staples (-0.07%) performed best.

Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Performance Review

For the first quarter of 2025, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite posted a total return of -7.34% net of fees (-7.20% gross of fees), beating the -9.48% total return of the Russell 2000 Index. Outperformance was driven by strong security selection in the Information Technology, Industrials and Materials sectors coupled with an underweight allocation to Consumer Discretionary. Security selection in Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Energy coupled with an overweight allocation to Information Technology detracted.

Relative ContributorsRelative Detractors
Alamos GoldColumbus McKinnon
Huron Consulting GroupMACOM Technology Solutions
MACOM Technology SolutionsWolverine World Wide
AerCap Holdings ASGN Incorporated
Merit Medical Systems Knowles Corp

CONTRIBUTORS

Alamos Gold (AGI-CA), engages in the exploration, development, mining and extraction of precious metals. The company benefited from rising gold prices as investors purchased the commodity as an inflation hedge. We maintain our investment as we believe in the company’s lower geopolitical risk profile, solid production growth plan from 600k oz to 1M oz per year over the next five years, and strong operational track record.

Huron Consulting Group (HURN), a specialty consulting company that provides financial, operational, and digital consulting services to health care, education and commercial clients, appreciated after delivering strong results highlighted by continued momentum within the company’s health care and commercial segments, more than offsetting the education segment. We maintain our investment, as we believe the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on a demand backdrop aided by financial and operational pressures in its largest end-markets, along with secular tailwinds supporting digital transformation, analytics and cloud consulting.

DETRACTORS

Columbus McKinnon (CMCO), engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of material handling products and systems. The company came under pressure following the announcement of its intent to acquire Kito Crosby, a global provider of lifting solutions and securement. Investor concern about the size and financing of the deal contributed to the weakness. We continue to maintain a position, for now, as we continue to evaluate the risk/reward potential associated with the deal.  

MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI), a designer and manufacturer of high-performance semiconductor products, declined along with the broader semiconductor industry during the quarter. We maintain our position, as we believe the company’s meaningful exposure to growing demand from Data Center and 5G end market applications along with the integration of recent acquisitions should drive additional shareholder value in periods to come.

Recent Portfolio Activity

Buys/AcquisitionsSells/Liquidations
Agree Realty CorporationAvid Bioservices
Old National BancorpBarnes Group
ValvolineDesigner Brands
Veeco InstrumentsFlushing Financial
ModivCare
Summit Materials

BUYS/ACQUISITIONS

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC), is a real estate investment trust that owns, manages and develops primarily neighborhood community shopping centers and single tenant properties leased to major retail tenants such as Sherwin-Williams, Wal-Mart and TJX Companies. We believe the company’s high-quality portfolio, recession resistant retail categories and strong balance sheet coupled with management’s proactive tenant management and acquisition pipeline will benefit the company on a go-forward basis. 

Old National Bancorp (ONB), is a regional bank serving clients primarily in the Midwest and Southeastern U.S. We believe the company’s geographic location, strong balance sheet, increased loan growth and repricing of fixed-rate loans to higher rates will benefit NIMs on a go-forward basis.

Valvoline (VVV), is a pure-play auto quick lube and maintenance service provider with over 2,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. The company provides quick and convenient stay-in-your-car automotive preventative maintenance through its full-service oil changes from skilled technicians in less than 15minutes. We believe the company will benefit from increased market share gains, driven by both corporate and franchise expansion, growing its scale, accelerating growth and increasing its moat.

Veeco Instruments (VECO), engages in the development, manufacture, sale, and support of semiconductor process equipment. Its technologies consist of metal organic chemical vapor deposition, advanced packaging lithography, wet etch and clean, laser annealing, ion beam, molecular beam epitaxy, wafer inspection, and atomic layer deposition systems. The company should benefit from the evolution of the semiconductor chip as manufacturers seek new technologies to enhance the manufacturing process that will enable them to produce smaller and faster chips.

SELLS/LIQUIDATIONS

Avid Bioservices (CDMO), is a dedicated biologics Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization working to improve patient lives by providing high quality development and manufacturing services to biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The company was acquired and taken private by GHO Capital and Ampersand Capital Partners.

Barnes Group (B), is a globally recognized industrial and aerospace manufacturer and service provider that stands out for its highly engineered products, differentiated industrial technologies, and innovative solutions. The company was acquired and taken private by Apollo Funds.

Designer Brands (DBI), is a North American company which engages in the design, production, and retail of footwear and accessory brands. We sold the position due to deteriorating corporate fundamentals.

Flushing Financial (FFIC), a NY-based regional bank holding company, was sold because the shares had reached our valuation target.

ModivCare (MODV), is a Colorado-based healthcare services company that provides non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT), homecare services, and remote patient monitoring to Medicaid and Medicare populations. We sold the position due to a deteriorating fundamental outlook that resulted in a deteriorating financial position.

Summit Materials (SUM), is a North American supplier of aggregates, cement, and ready-mix concrete for the construction industry. The company was acquired by Quikrete Holdings, Inc.  

Outlook

We continue to remain optimistic about the long-term potential for the small-cap segment of the U.S. market. Valuations remain compelling relative to large caps, with the Russell 2000 Index trading near multi-decade lows on a relative basis. Potential tailwinds, including deregulation, lower corporate tax rate, increased M&A activity, continued reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, and infrastructure-related spending, could provide additional support for small-cap stocks. There may be some short-term volatility as the new administration’s policies are implemented and absorbed by markets. We also remain mindful of risks such as inflation reaccelerating, increased geopolitical tensions, and potential U.S. economic weakness.

Positioning

Our current positioning is a function of our bottom-up security selection process and our ability to identify what we view as attractive investment candidates, regardless of economic sector definitions. Overweights in Industrials and Information Technology are mostly a function of our underlying company specific views rather than any top-down predictions for each sector. Conversely, we continue to be underweight in Consumer Discretionary, as we have been unable to identify what we consider to be compelling long-term opportunities that fit our discipline given the rising risk profiles of many retail businesses and a potential deceleration in goods spending following a period of strength. While the portfolio’s allocation to Health Care is modestly below that of the benchmark, we continue to remain underweight the Biotechnology industry as many companies within that group do not fit our discipline due to their elevated levels of binary risk. Meanwhile we have found more opportunities for steady company growth within the Provider, Services and Equipment industry group so more of our exposure is to that area of Health Care. Given our focus on long-term business fundamentals, patient investment approach and low portfolio turnover, the strategy’s sector positioning generally does not change significantly from quarter to quarter. However, we may take advantage of periods of volatility by adding selectively to certain companies when appropriate.



Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Boston’s Small Cap Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Aristotle Boston makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.

Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.

Effective January 1, 2022, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has been redefined to exclude accounts with meaningful industry-specific restrictions or substantial values-based screens hampering implementation of the small cap strategy.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs.

These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2504-19

Performance Disclosures

Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments

Composite returns for periods ended March 31, 2025, are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.

*The Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2006, at a predecessor firm. During this time, Jack McPherson and Dave Adams had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting January 1, 2015, was achieved at Aristotle Boston.

**For the period November 2006 through December 2006.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.

Effective January 1, 2022, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has been redefined to exclude accounts with meaningful industry-specific restrictions or substantial values-based screens hampering implementation of the small cap strategy.

Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Please see important disclosures enclosed within this document.

Index Disclosures

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2000 Value® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The volatility (beta) of the composite may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

2025 in the Russell 2000: narrow leadership, lower quality led the way.

Returns were highly concentrated in 2025 with over a quarter of the index’s return coming from just 10 stocks and the top 10 industries accounted for 91% of the benchmark’s return.

At the same time, fundamentals have weakened with median ROAs declining, the percent of unprofitable companies increasing alongside balance sheets deteriorating.

Yet long-term data shows:

  • 83% of rolling periods reward Quality
  • 79% reward Value

2025 has challenged disciplined investors, but history shows these environments are cyclical, not permanent.

Concentration of Russell 2000 Returns: Stocks

Over a quarter of the Russell 2000’s 2025 return came from its top ten contributors

Source: FactSet; data as of 12/31/2025.

Concentration of Russell 2000 Returns: Industries

91% of the Russell 2000’s 2025 return came from its top 10 industries

Source: FactSet; data as of 12/31/2025.

Quality of Index has Declined

As of December 31, 2025

Source: Aristotle Boston analysis with data from Bloomberg and Russell Investments. Data from 7/1994 to 12/2025

Rolling 12-Month Payoffs to Quality and Value

Russell 2000 Universe, 1995 – 2025

Source: Aristotle Capital Boston analysis using Bloomberg data over the years 1995 to 2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 93% of the Russell 3000® Index, as of the most recent reconstitution. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2603-9

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Active small-cap managers experienced performance headwinds since Liberation Day. Historically, how have small-cap core, growth, and value managers performed following similar challenging periods?

Extreme small-cap active underperformance has historically been followed by recovery.

Small-cap active managers are coming off one of the worst 9-month relative performance periods in the past 25 years.

History shows that after similar drawdowns:

  • Alpha has typically turned positive within 6-12 months
  • The strongest payoffs have come over 3 years, particularly in Small Core and Small Value

Periods of pain have often set the stage for opportunity.

For disciplined, long-term investors, mean reversion has mattered.

Better Times Tend to Follow Small Active Underperformance

As of December 31, 2025

Source: Jefferies Research Services; FTSE Russell; Lipper Analytical Services; FactSet as of 12/31/2025. Subsequent alpha is calculated following the worst nine-month relative return periods for each group of small cap managers: core, growth, and value.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2000 Value® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index. It includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2603-8

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

2025 has been defined by a low-quality market regime.

Market leadership has come from companies characterized by negative free cash flow, high short interest, and elevated bankruptcy risk.

Unprofitable companies outperformed profitable ones in 3 of 4 quarters. Since the April 8th “Liberation Day” rally began, unprofitable companies surged more than 80%.

From April through October, the trends were clear with low-quality outperforming high-quality and the most expensive stocks outperforming the cheapest.

For historical perspective, the payoff to quality and value during this 7-month “Liberation Day” rally ranks as the second worst period in the last 30 years.

Periods like this test discipline. Market regimes can persist longer than expected, but history suggests they don’t last forever.

Low Quality Factors Led in 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2025. Returns are relative to Russell 2000 Total Return.

Profitable vs. Unprofitable Companies

Source: FactSet 12/31/2024 to 12/31/2025.

Russell 2000 Non-Earner Performance by Sector

Source: FactSet; performance is through 12/31/2025.

2025: The Year of Low Quality and Expensive Stocks

Russell 2000

Source: Aristotle Capital Boston analysis using Bloomberg data in the Russell 2000 universe.  Quality consists of Margin, Low Accruals, and Capital Usage. 

April – October Among the Worst Periods for Quality and Value

Russell 2000

Source: Aristotle Capital Boston analysis using Bloomberg data in the Russell 2000 universe.  Quality consists of Margin, Low Accruals, and Capital Usage.  Payoffs are rolling seven-month Q1 – Q5 payoffs over the 1996 to 2025 period.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2603-7

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Low-quality and non-earning stocks have outperformed in three of the past four quarters. However, over time, these same companies tend to lag the broader index — a reminder that short-term market leadership often diverges from long-term value creation, and that fundamentals ultimately prevail.

Low Quality Factors Led in 3 out of 4 Quarters

As of September 30, 2025

Low quality factors led in 3Q25

Low quality factors led in 2Q25

Quality factors led in 1Q25

Low quality factors led in 4Q24

Source: Furey Research Partners Q1, Q2, Q3 2025; Q4 2024. Returns are relative to Russell 2000 Total Return.

Profitable vs. Unprofitable Companies

As of September 30, 2025

Source: FactSet 9/30/2024 to 9/30/2025.​

Historical Factor and Non-Earner Returns

As of September 30, 2025

Long-term relative path of unprofitable companies

Long-term returns of unprofitable companies

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. [Left chart] Displays aggregated returns for unprofitable companies and unprofitable companies ex/technology and health care in the Russell 2000 index, 1985-2025. HC is an abbreviation for the Health Care GICS sector

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-18

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Active small-cap managers’ quality focus can be a headwind in low-quality bull market rallies but a source of strength when markets correct — delivering resilience and alpha across the full market cycle.

Better Times Tend to Follow Small Active Underperformance

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Jefferies Research Services; FTSE Russell; Lipper Analytical Services; FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Worst 6 month average is the average of the worst 6 month relative return periods for each group of small cap managers: core, growth, and value.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-17

 

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

Market concentration surged in Q3: just two industries—Metals & Mining and Semiconductors—drove over 20% of the Russell 2000’s total return. Metals & Mining climbed 56%, Semiconductors 39%.

Of the index’s 50 best performers, 37 came from just four high-growth areas: biopharma, metals, crypto, and quantum computing. Such concentrated performance has emerged as a post-COVID phenomenon, potentially tied to the intensified growth momentum and narrow market leadership that has characterized recent years.

Two Industries Have Posted Outsized Gains Since the Bottom

As of September 30, 2025

Metals & Mining and Semis dominated 3Q25 returns

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Returns are for the Russell 2000 Index.

Two of 29 Industries Contributed 21% of the 3Q25 Return

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. Returns are for the Russell 2000 Index.

Top 50 stocks were nearly 50% of the 3Q25 Return

As of September 30, 2025

Of the 50 best Russell 2000 stocks, 37 were biopharma, metals, crypto or quantum computing

Source: FactSet 9/30/2024 to 9/30/2025.

Return Concentration Levels are a Post-Covid Phenomenon

As of September 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners, FactSet as of 9/30/2025. R2 is an abbreviation of the Russell 2000 Index.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmark. It is not possible to invest directly in this index.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2511-13

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

The current large cap cycle is the second longest since 1935, with small caps underperforming large caps by 5% on an annualized basis. Has the pendulum swung too far?

Markets tend to be mean-reverting. History shows that when the cycles turn, the catch-up trade in small caps can be powerful. Yet, timing the exact inflection point is nearly impossible, and missing just a handful of the best days can significantly erode long-term returns.

This is why maintaining a dedicated allocation to small caps remains critical for investors seeking to capture the full cycle.

The Last Time Large Caps Outperformed Small Caps by this Margin was in 1999

As of June 30, 2025

Source: eVestment. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to June 2025.


Small Caps Have Lagged By 5% in the Current Large Cap Cycle

As of June 30, 2025

Sources: Furey Research Partners, FactSet. Based on annualized returns for the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to June 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices.

Trailing Performance History Suggests We May Be at an Inflection Point

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet. Based on the annualized returns of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices from 1979 to December 2024.

The Key is to Stay Invested

As of June 30, 2025

Russell 2000 Forward 2-Year Annualized Return

Source: Furey Research Partners. Rolling forward two-year returns calculated daily, as of 6/30/2025.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2509-6

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.

After nearly 15 years of large cap dominance, investors are asking: what could drive the next market cycle?

Several potential catalysts are coming into focus:

  • Earnings troughing and reaccelerating
  • Slower growth rates by the “AI 5”
  • Rising M&A activity
  • Increased capex spending


These shifts suggest that small caps may be well-positioned to benefit from a broadening of market leadership, creating potential entry points for long-term investors.

Small Cap Earnings and Sales Growth Expectations

As of June 30, 2025

Source: Furey Research Partners; FactSet as of 6/30/2025.

Large-Cap Cycles Typically Peak at Market Tops Crowded with Mega Caps

As of June 30, 2025

Sources: eVestment; FactSet; Furey Research Partners. The 10-Year Rolling Excess Return represents the annualized return of the Russell 2000 Index over the trailing 10-year period minus the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Rolling periods are calculated monthly based on trailing 10-year return data for these indices from 1979 to June 2025. Historical returns prior to 1979 represent the Ibbotson SBBI US Small Cap Stocks and the Ibbotson SBBI US Large Cap Stocks indices.

Solid M&A Activity Down Cap Helps Small Cap’s Performance

As of June 30, 2025

Source: Jefferies; FTSE Russell; FactSet; Bloomberg as of 6/30/2025.

US Capex Growth is More Correlated with SC Sales Growth

Small cap stocks have a relatively higher historical correlation with capex than large cap stocks

Correlation of US capex growth with small cap (Russell 2000) and large cap (S&P 500) sales growth, 1985-3Q24.

Source: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy, FactSet, Haver Analytics, 9/30/2024.

For more small caps observations click here.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Boston does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.

Differing historical time periods are selected throughout the presentation as we believe specific periods provide the most informative historical analog for the concepts presented.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The volatility (beta) of the portfolios may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.

Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2509-5

For more on Small Cap Equity, access the latest resources.